Washington Wizards: Slump A Regression To The Mean?

On Thursday night in Charlotte, the Washington Wizards scored 30 points in the first quarter, 24 in the second, 20 in the third and just 13 in the fourth.  Washington led by five heading into the final period, but fell to the Hornets 94-87.  All-Star starter John Wall managed a total of just two points after halftime.

The decline in scoring as the game progressed can be viewed as a microcosm for the abrupt turn the Wizards’ season has suddenly taken.

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On Jan. 19, Washington trounced the Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points and improved its record to 29-13.  At the time, the Wizards held down the No. 2 position in the Eastern Conference.

Since then they’ve won just twice in their last nine games and have dropped five in a row, easily their longest losing streak of the year. Thursday’s loss was their second defeat at the hand of the Hornets in the past four days, leaving the Wizards at 31-20.

Washington is now tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the third and fourth spots in the East and is dangerously close to falling out of home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs — the No. 5 Chicago Bulls are only half a game back at 30-20.

To make matters worse, starting shooting guard Bradley Beal left late in the first quarter against Charlotte with a sore toe and did not return.  Beal scored just one point while shooting 0-for-5 from the floor.  The early outlook on his status was not particularly encouraging:

Nor was the prognosis of the team as a whole on Thursday night:

After a 22-8 start, Washington is 9-12 in its last 21 games.  The current rough patch the team is going through may have as much to do with regression to the mean as it does an actual slump.

When the Wizards were 29-13 they had one of the top five records in the entire NBA.  However, their scoring differential was just 11th-best in the league at 2.6 points per game. It was highly unlikely Washington was going to be able to keep winning at that rate despite outscoring their opponents by such a small margin.

At the moment the Wizards’ scoring differential is 1.5 points per game, the seventh-highest in the Eastern Conference.  But don’t worry Wiz fans, things are not as bad as they seem.

Of the team’s seven losses in its last last nine outings, none were by double digits and two of them included overtime. Early in the season Washington won more than its fair share of close games. In fact, through mid-January the Wizards owned a 17-6 record in contests decided by fewer than 10 points.  Even with its recent 2-7 stretch, Washington is still 19-13 overall in those decisions.

The Wizards played over their heads in the beginning of the year and it’s no surprise to see them fall back towards the pack.  But, they’re also better than their recent record indicates.  This “slump” is just the natural correction of an unexpectedly hot start.

Next: Paul Pierce to soon pass Kevin Garnett on all-time scoring list?

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