There have been quite a few top-five draft choices who haven’t panned out in the past few years. There is a lot of talk about draft day busts. There were plenty recently between guys like Michael Beasley, Greg Oden, Hasheem Thabeet and others. Indeed, the NBA draft is largely a shot into the dark. Can’t miss prospects like Beasley become notorious busts, while under-the-radar prospects become superstars.
Unfortunately for Thomas Robinson, he currently falls into the bust category.
Thomas Robinson was an absolute beast in his final year at Kansas. The first-team All-American power forward was a major part of the Jayhawks’ success in the 2011-12 season. Robinson averaged 17.7 points and 11.9 rebounds per game and shot an efficient 50.5 percent from the floor. Robinson also had an extremely good 27.4 Player Efficiency Rating.
Thomas Robinson was a major part of the Jayhawks’ success in the 2011-12 season as he lead them to the national championship game against Kentucky. Ultimately, Kentucky proved to be too much for them to handle. Robinson still managed to leave a lasting impression on scouts and NBA front offices and was promptly selected as the fifth overall pick by the Sacramento Kings in the 2012 NBA draft.
In his first season, Thomas Robinson did nothing but play terrible basketball. He was so bad that the Kings gave up on him during his rookie season. He was traded to the Rockets and just barely did a bit better there. When his season mercifully came to an end, he ended with an atrocious 4.8 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game on 43 percent shooting in 15.1 minutes per game. The Rockets would go on to trade him to Portland so they could clear up some cap to sign Dwight Howard.
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Thomas Robinson came to Portland and actually did much better. The numbers are nearly identical, but he did them in fewer minutes and was substantially more efficient while doing so. Robinson provided 12 minutes of solid, quality play at the power forward position, looking a lot more polished than he did last season. Here were his advanced stats for his career:
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2014.
All I see is improvement across the board. While he did play less minutes, he managed to improve just about everything. His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) went up a whopping 3.2 units as he was close to the league average of 15. His True Shooting Percentage (TS%) took a big increase, going up by five percent. His Total Rebound Percentage (TRB%) went up by 1.7 percent and was an excellent 18.9 percent. If he would have qualified, that would have been the 10th highest in the league.
He stopped turning the ball over so much and he decreased his Turnover Percentage (TOV%) by a whopping 4.8 percent. His Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating both improved and he was actually worth a positive Offensive Win Share (OWS) due to improved efficiency. His Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) went from negative to just under league average at .090
He showed massive improvement last year, but has he reached his ceiling yet? The safe bet is no. Thomas Robinson is still only 23 years old and he did show massive potential in college. Though he is unlikely to reach his full potential, he can still develop into a good power forward. The Trail Blazers believed enough in him to trade for him and it’s paying dividends. Thomas Robinson is becoming a quality player who is still on a cheap contract and can likely be retained on a cheap contract. He is under the radar, at the moment, and that bodes well for his development. There is no need to rush him into the fire with LaMarcus Aldridge ahead of him. He has plenty of time to learn under him and coach Terry Stotts.
The Trail Blazers traded for Thomas Robinson because they saw a player who still has quite a bit of potential in him. Thomas Robinson has all the tools needed to hone his craft and develop into an starting caliber player. He just needs to put it all together.