Ricky Rubio: Is He Worth More Than 4 years, $48M?

Per Sean Deveney of the Sporting News, the Minnesota Timberwolves have reportedly offered point guard Ricky Rubio a contract extension for four years worth a total of $48 million. According to Deveney, Rubio is looking for a max deal for five years and likely $85 million.

Players entering their fourth NBA season have until Oct. 31 to negotiate new contracts with their current clubs. In the same boat as Rubio, Kenneth Faried of the Denver Nuggets just re-upped for four years at what looks to be $50 million. If Faried is going to average $12.5 million per year, should Rubio be content with roughly the same value? Here’s a quick glance at their numbers from last season:

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Faried: 13.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.9 steals, .545 FG%, .650 FT%

Rubio: 9.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 0.1 blocks, 2.3 steals, .331 FG%, .802 FT%

Faried is also fresh off an impressive showing with Team USA this summer. When comparing the two it’s hard to make the case that Rubio is worth more money. Below are some other major signings from this past offseason:

Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz, 4 years, $63 million
Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks, 3 years, $46 million
Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns, 5 years, $70 million
Marcin Gortat, Washington Wzards, 5 years, $60 million
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors, 4 years, $48 million
Luol Deng, Miami Heat, 2 years, $20 million
Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets, 3 years, $27 million
Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics, 4 years, $32 million
Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets, 4 years, $32 million
Isaiah Thomas, Suns, 4 years, $27 million

The best frame of reference when examining Rubio’s situation is to look at the other point guards on the list. Their stats from last season are as follows:

Bledsoe: 17.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.3 blocks, 1.6 steals, .477 FG%, .772 FT%
Lowry: 17.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 0.2 blocks, 1.5 steals, .423 FG%, .813 FT%
Thomas: 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 0.1 blocks, 1.3 steals, .453 FG%, .850 FT%

Obviously there is more to basketball than just statistics, but Rubio’s numbers don’t stack up particularly well next to any of these three players. Realistically his value lies somewhere in between Thomas ($6.75 million per year) and Bledsoe ($14 million per), making Lowry’s $12 million average a very good barometer–which is exactly what Minnesota has offered.

Unfortunately it’s not that simple. Rubio can still use the inflated salaries of Hayward ($15.75 million average) and Parsons ($15.33 million) as bargaining chips. Will the Timberwolves want to risk not overpaying him when there’s a good chance somebody else will?

The length of the deal may also be a major point of contention between the two sides, as Deveney points out that clubs are only allowed one five-year contract and Minnesota will likely want to hold that open for Andrew Wiggins.

However, the NBA’s new TV deal worth $2.7 billion per season must also be taken into consideration. With the salary cap likely to rise significantly in the near future, contracts that look ridiculous now may not seem so bad a few years down the road. Grantland‘s Zach Lowe makes exactly this point in regards to the Bledsoe deal.

So what is fair for Rubio? Four years and $50 million-$55 million feels about right.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Is Ricky Rubio Worth More Than 4 Years, $48M?

By Mark Vandeusen | Oct 8, 2014