NCAA Tournament: Dayton and Goliath; Can Cinderella Keep Flying High?
Why Dayton Can Do It Again
Certainly, the odds are severely stacked against Dayton. But if you want to see the Flyers’ run continue, there are still several reasons why it might:
- History, Especially Recently: You wouldn’t think so, but historically, 11 seeds have the edge (3-2) over one seeds in regional finals, including fairly recent victories in the past two meetings. Although Temple lost to Michigan State in 2001, and Loyola Marymount’s captivating run came to an end to at the hands of eventual national champion ULNV, in 1990, others have broken though in Dayton’s current position when few thought they would. LSU stunned Kentucky to win the Southeast Region in 1986, and the Colonial Athletic Association sent a pair of 11 seeds to the Final Four in the most unlikely of ways, within a span of six years. George Mason pulled off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history by ousting UConn in 2006, five years before VCU went from the Frist Four to the Final Four after shocking Kansas, to win the Southwest Region.
- All of the Pressure is on No. 1: As the clear favorite against the Flyers, the Gators will also have all of the pressure on themselves. And we all know, the longer a team with championship aspirations and expectations lets a team playing loose and free, with house money, hang around, the tighter that favorite plays, and the tougher it becomes to win. Thus, if Dayton weathers any early storms, the Flyers might be in the game late. That’s especially true considering that Florida didn’t get out to big early leads against any of its last four opponents (Kentucky, in the SEC title game, and in the NCAA tournament: 16th-seeded Albany, ninth-seeded Pittsburgh and fourth-seeded UCLA). Throw in the fact that the Gators’ aforementioned four senior starters are each making their fourth straight trip to the Elite 8 — but have so far, progressed no further in their college careers — and if it’s a game in the second half, some of that “Oh no, here we go again” type of doubt could seep into the their minds.
- Goliath is Very Good, But Not Great: This year’s Gators may be the overall top seed in this year’s tournament, but they’re actually not as good as the third-seeded Florida team which beat that 2006 George Mason squad in the Final Four, en route to the first of its two consecutive national titles. As of today, even if they get by the Flyers (as expected), Silver pegs the Gators as having only a slightly better than even chance (52 percent) to reach the national title game, with a 28-percent probability of winning the championship (just five percent more than Arizona’s 23 percent). Not bad, but hardly the unbeatable 1970s version of the same school that Florida beat in its last game on Thursday night. So, while Dayton pulling an upset over Florida seems like an impossible task to some, this year’s Gators, despite their nearly unblemished record this season, aren’t quite the giant for a team like the Flyers to have to take down in a parity-driven college basketball season overall.
- Dayton’s Depth: To beat Goliath, Cinderella sometimes needs reinforcements to get the job done by committee. Head coach Archie Miller generally employs a rotation of eight or nine players, while even sprinkling in a few more minutes among a couple of other players. Forward Dyshawn Pierre gives the Flyers a wing to compliment Kavanaugh and Oliver, and a backcourt rotation of starters Jordan Sibert and Khari Price, along with Sanford and Schoohie Smith (to help Price run the point) keeps Miller’s club fresh enough to play its active style. Reserve forward Jalen Robinson (at 6-foot-9, 243 pounds) gives Miller another forward to bang with the Gators up front and forward Kendall Pollard plays meaningful minutes at small forward off the bench. If Dayton can get any key pieces on Florida in foul trouble, especially early, the Flyers will have the depth to take advantage.
- That Cinderella Magic: Finally, there are a few things that can’t be quantified (unlike Dayton’s ability to be one of the better teams to possess the nowadays lost art of making mid-range jumpers at a good rate). Twenty-eight years ago, it was simply LSU’s year to get to the Final Four, and that regional final win over Kentucky came by just two points. So did George Mason’s, over UConn, in overtime, in 2006. Five years later, VCU was only the four seed in its own conference tournament and wouldn’t have received an at-large bid if everything didn’t suddenly click in the CAA tournament, and then for another five games in the NCAA tournament. Dayton, tied for fifth-place in the Atlantic-10 this season, seems to be on a similar plane at the moment. Just 13-8, after ending the month of January with four straight losses, the Flyers are 13-2 since. Not even the very fine line between where the Flyers are now and being an early exit and tournament afterthought has ruined Dayton’s unlikely march through the South bracket (the Flyers won their first two games in the 2014 NCA tournament by a total of just three points; and had Aaron Craft’s shot fallen at the buzzer, Ohio State would have denied Dayton even one win in the tournament). Sometimes, it’s just destiny. There is some of that feeling with Dayton now, even though the Flyers are a scant 17-percent choice to win again, over the far greater chance that they’ll finally bow out to a significantly superior team. But that’s the mystique of March. And so far, no team left has captured that sort of magic better.
If none of the above works for the Flyers, they can always recall that while their scenario involves Dayton versus Goliath, in the original David versus Goliath contest, David won.