NCAA Tournament: Dayton and Goliath; Can Cinderella Keep Flying High?
Why Dayton’s Run Might End
At some point, with stories like Dayton’s, the glass slipper no longer fits and the unexpected no longer continues as the ordinary.
Of the eight teams remaining in the tournament, the Flyers have by far the least chance of advancing any further.
How slight is that probability?
Well, according to fivethirteight.com’s forecasting model (where you can click on Nate Silver’s table projections), Dayton only has a 17-percent chance of beating Florida. The Flyers also stand at just five percent to play in the national title game and there’s a mere one percent likelihood that they’ll win it all.
The Gators provide a myriad of solid arguments for order to be restored instead of one final shocker taking place in the South Region:
- Florida’s Rolling: Not only did the Gators navigate their way to conference regular season and tournament titles without a single loss within the SEC, but Florida hasn’t lost since December 2, while winning its past 29 games. The Gators’ only two losses all season (interestingly enough, against two other Elite 8 teams, Wisconsin and Connecticut) also came on the road. So not only does Florida have the confidence of that long winning streak, but the Gators also haven’t shown yet that they can be beaten on a neutral court this season.
- Senior Leadership: Normally when NCAA Tournament upstarts make unexpected runs and take aim at knocking top favorites off of the college hoops mountain, it’s because they can rely on a core group of seniors making up for being outmanned more talented but less experienced counterparts. In this case, the heavy favorite actually has that advantage. All but one of Florida’s five starters are seniors, including star point guard Scottie Wilbekin, and the Gators’ entire, very formidable front court, made up of fellow seniors, center Patric Young, and forwards Casey Prather and Will Yeguete (and one thing that might push Wilbekin a little more is the thought of being able to play in the Final Four next Saturday on what would will be his 21st birthday). Conversely, Dayton only has two seniors — center Matt Kavanaugh and forward Devin Oliver — among its starting five, although senior guard Vee Sanford also plays a key role off the bench for the Flyers.
- Physical Advantage: With Young in the middle, at 6-foot-9 and 240 pounds, and Yeguete flanking him at 6-foot-8, 230 pounds, the Gators are tougher and more physical up front, even though Kavanaugh (6-foot-10, 250 pounds) will take up the most space of anyone on the floor.
