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Washington Wizards: Marcin Gortat is Beating Regression

By Nicholas Agar-Johnson

Apr 8, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Washington Wizards center Marcin Gortat (13) reacts to a call during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons win 112-99. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 8, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Washington Wizards center Marcin Gortat (13) reacts to a call during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons win 112-99. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports /
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Marcin Gortat turns 33 in February, but is averaging career highs in shooting percentage and rebounding. With Ian Mahinmi out for at least six weeks, Gortat may make or break the playoff hopes of the Washington Wizards.

Despite his frustration with their early struggles, Marcin Gortat has been a steady force for the Washington Wizards this year. He currently leads the team in total minutes and is second behind John Wall in minutes per game.

Now in his fourth season in Washington, Gortat has grown accustomed to his role and is filling it beautifully. He sets solid screens on offense and is solid at rolling to the rim. Gortat is currently shooting 58 percent from the floor, a career-high mark for him.

More impressively, and more surprisingly, he is averaging 11.8 rebounds per game, which would be by far his career high.

The Wizards have been on a hot streak recently, winning seven of their last 10. However, they are still only 10th in the Eastern Conference. Their slow start to the season has left them on the outside of the playoff race for now.

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If Marcin Gortat can continue to beat regression and Father Time, the Wizards have a good chance at weathering the Ian Mahinmi injury and returning to the postseason.

Offense: John Wall’s Security Blanket

Marcin Gortat developed great pick-and-roll chemistry with John Wall early in his first season in Washington. Those pick-and-roll plays have been key to the Wizards offense this year as well.

Defenders have to respect Wall’s ability to drive to the rim, which often leads to wide-open shots for Gortat:

Marcin has been making good choices on the offensive end and making the most of his skill set. 82.4 percent of his shots have come from less than 10 feet from the basket according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data.

Gortat is a decent post-up player but scores most of his points on cuts to the rim or rolling to the basket after setting a pick. Gortat has been assisted on 75.3 percent of his made baskets. John Wall generates most of those looks and is quite adept at finding Marcin near the rim.

Wall’s passes comprise 56.7 percent of Gortat’s assisted baskets, and 41.5 percent of his total made baskets. The relationship goes both ways, though; only Bradley Beal has been the recipient of more Wall assists this season than Gortat.

Rebounding: Marcin Stands Alone

Prior to this season, Marcin Gortat had averaged double-digits in rebounding once in his career. That year, he averaged 10.0 rebounds per game for the Phoenix Suns during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.

Gortat is currently tied for fifth with 11.8 rebounds per game and he is almost 33 years old. So what happened?

The most obvious answer may also be the correct one: he’s simply getting more minutes. Marcin is averaging 35.8 minutes per season, three more per game than his previous career high.

His rebounding rate per 36 minutes is only 0.1 boards higher than last year–11.9 this year and 11.8 in 2015-16.

Another factor worth noting is that Marcin is not getting much help on the glass. The Wizards are currently 28th in the NBA in rebounding at 41.9 per game. Washington is struggling on the glass, but even the worst rebounding teams will get some boards.

With Gortat’s frontcourt partner, Markieff Morris, struggling to get rebounds (his 10.6 Rebounding Percentage ranks 101st out of 123 players listed at 6’10” or taller), Marcin is often the only Wizard in the vicinity of a rebound.

Gortat has held his own this season despite often being left alone on the glass. 38.9 percent of his rebounds this season were contested according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data.

That number puts him behind the league leader in rebounds (Hassan Whiteside, at 42.1 percent), but ahead of the man tied with Gortat for fifth in rebounding (Rudy Gobert, at 36.4 percent). Marcin might not be able to keep up this rebounding pace for the whole season.

However, his Per 36 numbers from last year and the rebounding struggles of the team as a whole may mean that Gortat will maintain his career high mark on the glass.

Moving Forward: Playoffs and the Future

Marcin Gortat has not seemed particularly interested in declining so far this season. He has been able to take advantage of his opportunities playing alongside John Wall and Bradley Beal on offense. Additionally, he has been a one-man wrecking crew on the glass for Washington.

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Although they are currently 10th in the standings, the Wizards have the eighth-best point differential in the East. Furthermore, they are only two and a half games behind the fourth place Hornets.

Much of that is on the strength of their starting lineup, whose Net Rating of 9.6 is tied for 11th best among lineups with more than 100 minutes played.

Marcin Gortat has beaten regression and is a major part of why the Wizards’ starting unit has played so well.

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His ability to maintain his career-best shooting efficiency and rebounding numbers will be a key factor in Washington’s playoff push.

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