Sacramento Kings: What Happened To Willie Cauley-Stein?
Willie Cauley-Stein got major minutes and a second-team All-Rookie nod as a Sacramento Kings rookie. In Year 2, he’s anchored on the bench.
Willie Cauley-Stein quickly rose to prominence last season and looked like a foundational piece for the Sacramento Kings. The team has struggled to develop talent in recent years, but Cauley-Stein looked great from Opening Day through April.
Sacramento drafted him sixth overall in the 2015 draft, but questions about his fit with DeMarcus Cousins and a limited offensive game led many to question the pick.
However, Cauley-Stein started in 39 of the 66 games he played in Sacramento last season as DeMarcus’ frontcourt partner. Willie settled into a role as a defensive specialist and as a cutter and lob target on offense.
The most important feature of Cauley-Stein’s game is his generational athletic ability. His time in the lane agility drill was the fastest for a center in combine history, according to DraftExpress. For reference, Cauley-Stein’s 10.45 second time is faster than the average score for point guards.
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Additionally, he had the same max vertical reach as Dwight Howard—tied for first among current NBA centers. Cauley-Stein also has the second-fastest 3/4 court sprint time among current centers, just .01 seconds behind Howard.
Cauley-Stein leverages his incredible athletic gifts into remarkable defensive versatility. He became one of Sacramento’s best defensive players almost immediately.
His 7’1″ frame and guard-like athleticism allowed him to switch onto guards on pick-and-rolls and effectively guard players from point guards to centers. He is one of the rare players who can block a shot on one end and then beat everyone down the floor in transition:
Cauley-Stein earned a spot on last year’s All-Rookie second team and appeared to have a bright future ahead of him.
Statistical Decline and Offensive Stasis
After his strong rookie season, Willie has been disappointing so far under Dave Joerger. He has yet to start a game this season, and his numbers are lower across the board:
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/8/2016.
Cauley-Stein is still able to score effectively around the paint, as shown in his shooting numbers. He has shot 67.3 percent so far in the restricted area, according to the NBA’s shot tracking data. His scoring around the rim ranks well above league average.
Willie does not have much of an offensive game outside of the paint. He has taken 73.1 percent of his shots–49 of 67–from less than five feet from the basket, according to the NBA’s shot tracking data. However, his efficiency from that range shows that he can still be effective as a complementary piece on offense.
Defensive Woes
The biggest issues have not been on the offensive end, but rather on defense. After posting a defensive box plus-minus of 1.5 last season, Cauley-Stein has a minus-0.4 DBPM in 2016-17.
George Karl‘s defensive system last year emphasized protecting the paint–something Willie does quite well. Although the Kings struggled defensively as a team last year, Cauley-Stein was one of the few bright spots.
Dave Joerger’s defensive schemes focus less exclusively on guarding the rim and more on physicality. Cauley-Stein has put on weight since last season, but he still tips the scale at only 240 pounds despite his height.
He will have to continue to put on muscle to earn minutes from Joerger going forward. His physical concerns, however, are less troubling than his mental lapses. Despite playing fewer minutes, Willie has committed more fouls per game than he did last season.
He has looked lost at times in Joerger’s system and often finds himself out of position and with little choice but to foul opposing players. The season is still young, so Cauley-Stein will almost certainly improve in that regard as he continues to learn the new defensive system.
His strong play from last season and elite athleticism indicate that his defense will improve as the season goes on.
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Problems on the Glass
Given the adjustment issues on defense, Cauley-Stein’s struggles in the rebounding department might be more concerning than his defense. After rebounding 13.5 percent of available shots last season, he is down to just 8.5 percent this year.
Although 13.5 percent is still a relatively low number for a center, 8.5 percent is verging on disastrous. Cauley-Stein’s rebounding percentage is 88th out of 91 eligible centers, according to NBA.com’s advanced stat tracking.
If you filter out players averaging fewer than 10 minutes per game (and remove the one game sample from Ian Mahinmi), Cauley-Stein ranks 74th out of 75. Only Boris Diaw, who is arguably more of a forward than a center, rebounds at a lower rate.
The fact that Cauley-Stein is playing most of his minutes this season without Cousins on the floor yet is still struggling to rebound is troubling.
No Need to Panic
Although there have been some troubling signs for Cauley-Stein so far this season, it is far too early to panic. The sample size of his rookie year is far larger and seems more applicable to his future play.
Furthermore, Dave Joerger is a defensive-minded coach and Cauley-Stein is a defensive-minded player. As Cauley-Stein adjusts to Joerger’s system, his defensive tools will help him to earn more playing time.
Additionally, Willie seems like a prime candidate to see an increase in minutes as the season goes on. Kosta Koufos and Matt Barnes will likely see their minutes decline if they continue to struggle on offense.
Cauley-Stein fits better with Rudy Gay and DeMarcus than either Barnes or Koufos, which will help his case for more playing time. Joerger has relied heavily on Barnes and Koufos as players who already knew his system from their time in Memphis.
Cauley-Stein will learn the system better as the year progresses, which will narrow the gap in Joerger’s comfort level about playing him.
Willie Cauley-Stein has started the season slowly, but he is still one of the league’s most promising defensive prospects.
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And his athletic ability is also a cause for optimism. After all, there are not many players in the league that can do this:
He may continue to struggle to adjust, but his underlying strengths and solid rookie year are enough to offset his poor play so far.