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NBA Draft: Is There Ever A Safe Pick?

By Josh Cornelissen

Feb 12, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers small forward Anthony Bennett (15) boxes out Detroit Pistons small forward Josh Smith (6) during the first quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 12, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers small forward Anthony Bennett (15) boxes out Detroit Pistons small forward Josh Smith (6) during the first quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /
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The NBA Draft is an exercise in risk and reward, even more so than commonly talked about. The idea of a ‘safe pick’ is not shown to exist in draft history.

Feb 21, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Anthony Bennett (15) watches a free throw next to Toronto Raptors forward John Salmons (25) at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Cavaliers 98-91. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 21, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Anthony Bennett (15). Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /

As the season of NBA Mock Drafts and Big Boards builds to a crescendo with Thursday night’s NBA Draft, one of the buzz words used by draft analysts is the “safe pick”. That is, the player a team can choose that offers less risk than other options. This very site ran such a piece this week.

Interestingly, that term is generally used in a negative way. For example, “Team A could draft Player Y if they want to play it safe, but the upside of taking Player X is much greater.” Without the risk there isn’t the reward.

The very concept of a “safe pick” is based on an assumption; that there are a group of players that are can’t miss prospects, who may not be superstars but are guaranteed as starters, role players, etc. This assumption is almost certainly false.

Four groups of players are at times labeled with this “safe” moniker. While some players in each group certainly pan out, there are numerous players once given the “safe” sign that fail to meet even baseline expectations.

Related Story: NBA Draft: Best Player Ever Selected in all 60 Spots

What are these groups of safe players? And which players in the 2016 NBA Draft are thought to be the “safe” picks?

Next: Four-Year Seniors

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