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NBA Draft: Is There Ever A Safe Pick?

By Josh Cornelissen

Feb 12, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers small forward Anthony Bennett (15) boxes out Detroit Pistons small forward Josh Smith (6) during the first quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 12, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers small forward Anthony Bennett (15) boxes out Detroit Pistons small forward Josh Smith (6) during the first quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 2, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmer Fredette works out before the game against the New York Knicks at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 2, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmer Fredette works out before the game against the New York Knicks at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /

Four-Year Seniors

These are players who have put in four years at college, generally ending their careers among the best in the nation. They populate the all-conference teams and were on billboards during the NCAA Tournament.

Although as older players they lack the long-term upside other players bring, they are supposed to be ready to step in and contribute in a rotation right away.

Sometimes these safe picks pan out; guys such as C.J. McCollum, J.J. Redick and Mason Plumlee are all starting in the league after four-year college careers. At a lower tier, guys like Miles Plumlee, Doug McDermott and Tyler Zeller are filling in rotations after extended stints in college.

But many of these safe picks flame out as well. Jimmer Fredette was a four-year senior acquired by the Sacramento Kings in the 2011 draft who was a star in college.

He never cracked eight points a game in a little more than two seasons with the Kings before beginning to bounce around the league on his way to the D-League. He is relegated to rumors of Summer League at this point in his career.

Other senior flops are sprinkled around the league. Kyle Singler helped the Duke Blue Devils win the 2010 NCAA Tournament as their leading scorer and after middling play in Detroit was acquired by the Oklahoma City Thunder to fit their missing wing slot.

He couldn’t crack the rotation in the playoffs.

Adam Morrison was the foil to J.J. Redick in the 2006 draft, going third overall to Charlotte, and flamed out in the biggest way possible.

2016 Candidates: Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon, Denzel Valentine, Brice Johnson

Next: Elite Shooters

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