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Don’t Look Now, The Houston Rockets Are Suddenly Surging

By Duncan Smith

Dec 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) reacts after making a basket during the second half against the New Orleans Pelicans at Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Pelicans 108-101. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) reacts after making a basket during the second half against the New Orleans Pelicans at Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Pelicans 108-101. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Houston Rockets started the season badly, leading to the firing of head coach Kevin McHale and the benching of Ty Lawson. But there are signs of an upturn.

It’s no secret that the Houston Rockets have had an abysmal start to the season. They lost their first three games by exactly 20 points, being the first team in NBA history to do so.

Their head coach, Kevin McHale, paid the price for this early malaise. McHale was fired just 11 games into the season when the Rockets got out to a 4-7 start and replaced with assistant J.B. Bickerstaff, after McHale led the Rockets to the Western Conference Finals just this past May. The Rockets have gone 4-4 under Bickerstaff to bring the record to 8-11 on the season so far.

Houston brought in Ty Lawson from the Denver Nuggets in the offseason to fill a need at point guard, but like many things have been for the Rockets this season, he’s been a disaster.

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Lawson was benched twice in just the past week, once against the Memphis Grizzlies last Friday when he played just two minutes and 41 seconds, and again two days later when he got a DNP-Coach’s Decision against the New York Knicks.

Things reached a boiling point around the time of the benchings, when there began to be whispers of trade rumors surrounding Lawson. It seems as though those rumors have been ill-founded, however.

According to Calvin Watkins, ESPN’s Rockets beat writer, the Houston Rockets front office assured Lawson that he wasn’t being shopped.

"“They’re pretty honest here and they would come up to me and tell me that,” Lawson said after scoring 12 points in the Rockets’ 108-101 victory over New Orleans on Wednesday night. “When that story came out, they came up to me and told me like there is no truth to it. I’m just playing here every day, go day by day, working hard and if things happen, things happen.”"

If the past couple games are any indication, Lawson may have settled into his new role coming off the bench. In fact, in that 108-101 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, Lawson had by far his best game of the season to date.

The Rockets have won three of their last four games, and they appear to be on an upward trajectory.

They have climbed out of the bottom echelons in the league in offensive rating, up to 20th with 100.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s not especially remarkable, but the were in the bottom five barely a week ago.

Over this four-game stretch, the Rockets have the third-best offensive rating in the NBA, scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Their effective field goal percentage is ninth-best at 49.7 percent, and their true shooting percent is seventh-best at 55 percent.

Compare these to their respective full-season marks of 20th and 18th, and we can see the first glimmer of improvement of the season for the Houston Rockets.

In addition, James Harden has been especially effective for the Rockets in the past four games.

Harden has scored 32.3 points per game over this stretch, adding 8.8 rebounds and 7.5 assists. He is shooting just 40.7 percent from the floor and 29 percent from long-range, but he is taking 14.3 free throws per game. He has long been derided for his tendency to get in the lane and draw fouls (whether real or phantom), and he has cranked it to another level in the past four games.

The 14.3 attempts are 4.1 more per game than he got on average last season, when he averaged 10.2 per game. While his shot is still struggling, he’s gone back to what works, and that’s producing points from the line.

It’s also worth noting that in light of recent revelations that he is growing fatigued due to heavy minutes, especially late in games, Harden is averaging 41.4 minutes per game over this stretch. His minutes are up to an NBA-leading 39.5 per game on the season.

As the primary offensive option for the Rockets, something may have to give here. The Rockets play better when Harden plays more, naturally, but if he’s already suffering late-game fatigue, he’s going to have to play less. That’s going to be a problem for this team that relies on him so very much.

The return of Patrick Beverley is almost certainly an underrated component of the Rockets’ resurgence.

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Since returning from injury five games ago, he has started the past four. He’s averaging just 7.2 points and 3.2 assists per game, but the reason Beverley clicks with Harden better than Lawson is that he doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. In just 28 minutes per game, he’s averaging 1.8 steals per game, which is a big benefit in comparison to Lawson’s defense.

Lawson averaged just 7.2 points and 4.5 assists in almost the exact same number of minutes per game, but provides just 1.1 steals per game. It speaks to Lawson’s redundancy alongside Harden that he and Beverley are putting up similar numbers on offense, given the fact that Beverley is known to be an offensively limited point guard.

Next: NBA Power Rankings: Week 6

The Rockets haven’t earned the trust of their fans or their front office or ownership yet, and remember, firing McHale in the first place seems to have been the call of the fairly hands-off owner Leslie Alexander. There are still questions left to be asked about the defense, and about just what happens when Harden leaves the floor. For all he does for the Rockets, he can’t play all 48 minutes every game.

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