Houston Rockets: Fatigue Is A Factor For James Harden
By Duncan Smith
The Houston Rockets have been forced to rely on James Harden to a point of excess during their malaise, and it’s having wide-ranging consequences.
The Houston Rockets have gotten off to a surprising 7-11 start, and they’ve been forced to rely on James Harden for scoring in the midst of these struggles. Ty Lawson was acquired from the Denver Nuggets in the offseason to help lighten the load, but much like everything for the Rockets so far this season, it hasn’t worked out anywhere near the way it was planned.
James Harden has played an NBA-leading 39.7 minutes per game so far this season, 2.7 more than second-place Kentavious Caldwell-Pope of the Detroit Pistons. The gap between Harden and Caldwell-Pope from first to second is the same gap that exists between Caldwell-Pope and the next 31 names on the minutes-per-game list.
This hefty minutes load may be causing Harden fatigue, particularly in fourth quarters.
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The Houston Chronicle’s Jonathan Feigen details this fourth quarter decline below:
James Harden on playing 3 more mpg than anyone. "Nobody's playing 40 minutes. Obviously, those minutes are going to have to be cut down."
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) December 2, 2015
In the fourth quarter, Harden shooting 34.5 % overall and 23.4 % on 3s. (He's at 40.1 %, 29.8 % overall this season.)
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) December 2, 2015
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Indeed, the fourth quarter is Harden’s worst quarter by a significant margin.
According to stats.nba.com, Harden’s first quarter shooting splits this season from the field and the three-point line are .433/.387, his second quarter splits are .398/.314, and his third quarter splits are .412/.326.
This equates to a 41.7 percent field goal percentage, and 35 percent from long-range if we remove all fourth quarters from the equation. As Feigen notes in the above tweet, this is reasonably above his season splits of .401/.298.
It’s worth noting that third quarters may be a key to this situation. Harden plays an average of 11.2 minutes per third quarter, which means that of a possible 216 third quarter minutes this season he has played 201.6, which is leaving him fatigued for intense fourth quarters.
This correlates with the Rockets’ third and fourth quarter results this season.
The third quarter has been the Rockets’ best quarter, in which they are being outscored by only 0.8 points per 100 possessions.
That doesn’t sound great, but the Rockets have a net rating (points scored minus points against per 100 possessions) of minus-6.9 on the season, so any quarter where they’re not being blown out on average is about as close as they get to a good quarter at this point.
The Rockets have been bad in fourth quarters. They have a net rating in the final period this season of minus-9.5, which is fourth-worst in the NBA.
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What, then, are the Rockets to do?
Rest James Harden for an extra crucial moment or two in third quarters for the purpose of unleashing him in the fourth? On a team that was expected to be among the NBA’s deepest this season, it’s difficult to see a rotational adjustment that can allow for Harden to spend much time on the bench.
Per NBAWowy, the Rockets are getting outscored by 16 points per 100 possessions over a 329-possession sample when Harden rests, but are only getting outscored by 4.6 points when he’s on the floor.
If we look at just the past 15 games, since the Rockets started the season off 0-3 and lost all three by exactly 20 points, the Rockets are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.2 points per 100 possessions when Harden plays, and getting outscored by 15.8 points when he sits.
There is no easy solution here. If anything, the Rockets need more Harden, not less. Somehow this team is completely toothless and bereft when he leaves the floor, and can barely stay afloat even when he is present.
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The Rockets have a net rating of -6.9 on the season, as mentioned earlier, but Harden’s own net rating this season is plus-2, which is nothing short of a magnificent feat at this point.