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Robin Lopez: The Blazers’ Forgotten Free Agent

By Chris St. Jean

Mar 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez (42) before the start of their game against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Canada Centre. The Trail Blazers beat the Raptors 113-97. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez (42) before the start of their game against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Canada Centre. The Trail Blazers beat the Raptors 113-97. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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For the Portland Trail Blazers, LaMarcus Aldridge is the first priority, and the second may be Wesley Matthews, depending on their mindset.  But the Blazers also have a decision to make about their starting center, Robin Lopez, who also happens to be an unrestricted free agent.

The Portland Trail Blazers acquired Robin Lopez from the New Orleans Hornets (now Pelicans) in the 3-team deal that sent Tyreke Evans there in July of 2013. As Joe Freeman of The Oregonian wrote at the time:

"“The Trail Blazers finally landed a veteran center.”"

…and that the Blazers were, ‘desperate to shore up their interior defense’.

During the 2012-13 season essentially the same Trail Blazer core with J.J. Hickson manning the center position that Lopez would eventually solidify was 26th (109.2) in the NBA in Defensive Rating according to Basketball Reference.

Since acquiring Lopez, that number has climbed steadily. In Lopez’ first season with the Blazers, they improved to 16th (107.4) in the NBA in Defensive Rating and finished last season 10th (103.7) according to Basketball Reference.

Lopez played a crucial role in his first season in Portland as the catalyst of building Terry Stotts’ defensive system.

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Since then, things have only improved, to the point where the Trail Blazers defense was one of the best in the entire NBA prior to Wesley Matthews going down, and that was with Lopez sidelined at points with injuries.

Portland gave up almost nothing (the rights to Jeff Whithey, a second round pick, and some cash) to bring in Lopez and things couldn’t have worked out better in that first season.

Lopez brought reliability to the Blazers.  His defensive impact was felt in all 82 games that season and Lopez played a career-high 31.7 minutes per game and by bringing in Lopez to play the center position, the Blazers unlocked the best play from LaMarcus Aldridge.

LaMarcus Aldridge averaged more than 23 points per game only twice in his career, both seasons he played alongside Robin Lopez.  Aldridge averaged more than 10 rebounds per game only twice in his career, both seasons he played alongside Robin Lopez. Notice a theme?

Lopez wasn’t just a factor on defense in that first season either.  Despite taking less than eight shots per game (and therefore allowing the more talented Aldridge to soak up possessions), he averaged over 11 points per game.

All Statistics via Basketball Reference
All Statistics via Basketball Reference /

Combine that with his 8.5 rebounds (4 offensive) per game and it’s apparent that Lopez was helping on offense as well.  But then you look at the advanced statistics and wonder at the impact he was actually having.

During that 2013-14 NBA season, Lopez had an Offensive Rating of 128.  He was the only player in the entire league to play at least 1400 minutes and sustain that level of team-based offensive production and he played in 2600 minutes that season according to Basketball Reference.

He was also 14th in the NBA in Offensive Win Shares that season according to Basketball Reference behind Durant, LeBron, Kevin Love, Steph Curry, James Harden, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Kyle Lowry, Dirk, Anthony Davis, Goran Dragic, and his teammate Damian Lillard.  Pretty good offensive company for a defensive anchor.

If the Blazers knew they were getting 2013-14 Robin Lopez for the next three seasons, the missing piece, the defensive anchor that ranks among one of the most efficient offensive players in the league, they would sign him to a deal today, would they not?

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    • But there’s no guarantee of that.  As much as Nicholas Batum regressed from last season to this, Lopez may have outdone him.  Although Lopez was an integral part of an ever improving defense in 2014-15, he was not as good. Lopez played in only 59 games this season compared to the 82 in the prior one.

    His averages across the board dipped to 9.6 points and 6.7 rebounds (3.2 offensive) per game and an Offensive Win Share total of 3.2, less than half of the season before.

    Another obvious advantage that Lopez brings to the Blazers in particular is a huge question mark.  Lopez’s obvious positive impact on Aldridge when the two share the floor is of tremendous value, but only if you still have LaMarcus Aldridge.

    Does that mean that the Blazers wait out Aldridge before they make a decision on Lopez? Or do they get aggressive and re-sign Lopez as a way of luring Aldridge back? That may be impatient because of all the rotation players the Blazers may lose this off-season, Lopez may be the most replaceable.

    Not only do the Blazers have a team option they could pick up for Chris Kaman, they have a young and emerging center in Meyers Leonard (who may fit better in Terry Stotts’ 3-point barrage of a flow offense). Not only that, but this season’s free agent pool looks to be deep at the center position.

    There are unrealistic options like Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, and Tim Duncan.  But there are also above average options such as Robin’s twin brother Brook and Tyson Chandler.  And there’s a possibility someone like Roy Hibbert might be available as well, someone Portland flirted with in the past.

    Of course, in his exit interview, Lopez made it clear that he would be happy to sign long-term in Portland, but is that the best move for the Blazers?

    It’s one of the many decisions that Portland GM Neil Olshey will be grappling with between now and July. It may very well depend on Aldridge’s decision, but whether he stays or goes, do the Blazers want to bring back the 27-year-old Robin Lopez?

    Next: Los Angeles Clippers: Realistic Trade, Free Agency Targets

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