Uncertainty Surrounds Blazers and LaMarcus Aldridge

Well, that escalated quickly.

It’s been less than 72 hours since the Portland Trail Blazers were dispatched in five games by the Memphis Grizzlies. Almost half of that time has been spent by many pontificating on the future of the Blazers and their star player LaMarcus Aldridge.

Minor details began popping up weeks ago. On Apr. 16, the day after the regular season completed, John Canzano, a columnist for The Oregonian, wrote about the genesis of the relationship between Portland general manager Neil Olshey and former Nike sports marketing executive Sonny Vaccaro.

In that story though, about Neil Olshey’s aggressive path into the world of NBA front offices, was this tidbit:

"“Olshey also issued a directive this season to the organization’s marketing arm that it needed to be more Aldridge-centric than in prior seasons because Aldridge himself had begun to notice the Lillard-palooza going on.”"

Aldridge has spent almost his entire Blazers career considered the “second banana.” Early on, he was always the second fiddle to Brandon Roy and if Greg Oden had ever stayed healthy Aldridge would have taken a backseat to him as well.

In the time after that core fell apart and before the Blazers realized the type of player they had in Damian Lillard, Aldridge faced a lot of criticism. He was criticized as a jump shooter. He didn’t rebound for his position. He couldn’t protect the basket. Since then, Aldridge has quietly answered each of those criticisms.

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It’s widely believed that the Blazers brought in Robin Lopez to appease Aldridge in some way. Even if that’s the case, Aldridge was right. Since Lopez came to Portland, Aldridge has posted two of his best rebounding seasons in his career. He’s also developed into a solid defender exemplified by his play in this first round series against the Grizzlies.

After the Blazers’ poor performance in Game 1 of the series, Jason Quick of The Oregonian wrote about the fact that Portland might want to be concerned about LaMarcus this offseason. He noted a previous report from the paper with an anonymous report from one of Aldridge’s teammates:

"“Some Blazers players have already said they are worried free agency will take Aldridge away from Portland this summer. Earlier this month, before a home game, a Blazers player estimated the chances of him returning to Portland at 50-50.”"

Of course in the same breath, Quick mentioned that his belief is that Aldridge is happy and comfortable in Portland, and Aldridge said as much last offseason when he turned down a three-year extension and promised to sign a five-year extension when he gets the opportunity.

That opportunity is now. The season may have just ended for the Blazers, but the focus on the future is immediate and that brings a lot of questions for this Blazers team.  Aldridge is not the only Blazer with an uncertain future.  In fact, only Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard, C.J. McCollum, and Nicolas Batum are under guaranteed contract for next season at this point in time.

Joining Aldridge as free agents with all kinds of options in front of them are Robin Lopez and the injured Wesley Matthews. Other players like Chris Kaman, Steve Blake, Arron Afflalo, and Allen Crabbe have either partially guaranteed contracts or player options. All of this just adds to the uncertainty both for the Blazers and for Aldridge.

On Thursday, SBNation’s Tom Ziller considered all the options Aldridge will have this summer.  Sprinkled throughout the article he posits popular options such as San Antonio and Dallas, New York and Los Angeles, but also other intriguing options such as Houston, Boston, Atlanta, and Washington. But he couldn’t shake this question:

"“That’s the interesting thing about Aldridge’s particular free agency. Can any team actually improve his situation?”"

That’s interesting for Aldridge but it’s also the inception of what will likely be an internal struggle for the Blazers.  When the Blazers were healthy this season they were one of the best teams in the NBA, flat out. They were a legitimate title contender.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Blazers “bring the gang back,” get internal development out of players like C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard and are a top 10 offense and defense and deeper than they’ve ever been under Terry Stotts.  If you’re Aldridge, it’s hard to pass up that opportunity.

It’s just as hard for the Blazers to pass it up. Crazy talk right? In what universe would the Blazers want to pass up on bringing back the core of their offense, one of the greatest Blazers of all time, a consistent force that has been through everything with this franchise? That was my immediate reaction as well.

Just hours after the Blazers lost in Game 5 to the Grizzlies, in a series in which Aldrich shot 37 out of 112 (33 percent), Canzano wrote a column considering whether it may be in the best interest of the Blazers to let Aldridge sign that max contract with another team.

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My immediate reaction was to recoil. That can’t be right. If the Blazers only let Aldridge walk and re-signed Matthews and Lopez, they wouldn’t even have cap room to replace LMA. If they renounced the rights to all the players with uncertain futures they would only have $37 million in free space to replace two-thirds of the roster.

It just doesn’t seem prudent for the Blazers to go that route.

But let’s think about it in a different way. Let’s take a moment to dissociate how integral Aldridge has been to this Blazers team for the last three seasons. Ignore that the offense is basically build around him demanding a double team. Let’s put that aside.

Aldridge is 29 and eligible for a five-year, $119 million contract. In 2010, the Atlanta Hawks signed Joe Johnson, then 29, to a six-year, $116 million contact. That didn’t go so well. That same off-season, the Knicks signed a 27-year-old Amare Stoudemire to a five-year, $100 million contact. That didn’t go so well either.

This past summer, the Knicks signed Carmelo Anthony, at 29, to a five-year, $124 million deal. It’s early, but there are already Knicks fans saying that the team shouldn’t be building around Carmelo.

These examples don’t prove that it’s a bad idea for Portland to lock up Aldridge.  Other players, such as Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett lived up to every dollar they got in their second max deal.  There are no guarantees here, and that goes both ways.

One thing is for certain though, this offseason is going to be a crucial one for Portland and it could set the path for the franchise over the next four to five seasons.

Next: Golden State Warriors: 5 Keys To Second Round Series

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