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NBA Draft Lottery Dice Unlikely To Roll In Philadelphia 76ers Favor

By Cody Daniel

Apr 5, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts to a foul call during the second half against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks defeated the 76ers 101 - 91. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 5, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts to a foul call during the second half against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks defeated the 76ers 101 - 91. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Philadelphia 76ers and their ever-patient fans can all finally breathe a collective sigh of relief, as yet another season where winning was far from the focus has drawn to a close. After an 18-64 finish to the season — which was a one-game regression from last year’s 19-63 effort — the focus will shift entirely to the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery and the NBA Draft itself.

But even with the brighter days of finding out who the Sixers could bring is as another potential cornerstone war nearer, there’s still the sad reality that comes with the Sixers very likely walking away from the May 19 Draft Lottery with only one of the four first-round picks Sam Hinkie would have accrued had the dice rolled differently for some NBA teams.

I’ll begin with the one, and likely only pick Philadelphia will get to use in the upcoming draft, which is their own lottery pick. After the New York Knicks two-game winning streak came to a close Wednesday night against the Detroit Pistons, the Knicks were able to prevent the 18-64 Sixers from jumping into the No. 2 spot heading into the lottery with a 17-65 finish to their season.

This leaves Philadelphia with a mere 15.6 percent chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick, while their most likely landing spots are at No. 4 with 22.6 percent and No. 5 with 26.5 percent.

If the Sixers are able to remain in the top three, or even top four of the draft and get their hands on someone like point guard Emmanuel Mudiay or combo guard D’Angelo Russell from Ohio State, then Tank 2.0 will seemingly have been worth it.

But if Philly drops into that No. 5 or No. 6 draft position and misses out on the guys widely viewed as the star-caliber talents of this draft and have to settle for someone like Stanley Johnson or Mario Hezonja, there would surely be a feel that the risk outweighed the reward of tanking this season.

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This isn’t to say Johnson or Hezonja can’t grow into stars in the NBA, but that’s simply not who the Sixers, nor their fans would want to see in Philly next season by way of the Sixers’ lottery pick.

Philadelphia still has the potential to land the Los Angeles Lakers lottery pick, should it land outside of the top five. But with the Lakers finishing with the fourth-worst record in the NBA, two teams – such as Sacramento and Denver – would have to jump into the top five for the Sixers to convey the Lakers’ pick. The likelihood of that happening is only 17.2 percent.

If the Sixers don’t get the Lakers’ pick in the upcoming draft, it becomes top-three protected in 2016.

Apr 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Heat forward Michael Beasley (30) shoots past Philadelphia 76ers center Henry Sims (35) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Heat won 105-101. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Heat forward Michael Beasley (30) shoots past Philadelphia 76ers center Henry Sims (35) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Heat won 105-101. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

The top-10 protected Miami Heat pick that looked to be a sure thing for the majority of the season is now also unlikely to land in Hinkie’s hands.

The Heat missed out on the playoffs this season and earned the 10th-worst record in the NBA, which gives the Heat a 90.9 percent chance of landing the No. 10 pick or moving up in the draft. At this point, the only way Philadelphia would steal Miami’s pick would be if Utah, Phoenix and Oklahoma City were to jump the Heat, which is very unlikely.

The Heat’s pick will again be top-10 protected in 2016.

This brings me to the final, and another unlikely draft selection the Sixers have had their eye on; the Oklahoma City Thunder’s top-18 protected pick.

After an injury-plagued season saw Durant miss the majority of the schedule and Westbrook do everything he can to shoulder the load before ultimately falling just short of the eighth spot in the West, the Thunder will end up with a lottery pick.

OKC is almost guaranteed to pick at No. 14, but regardless of what happens with their pick now, the Sixers won’t get it, making the pick now top-15 protected next season.

It’s hard to simply say the final results of the season were disappointing, as the draft now becomes the focus. The Sixers could have potentially added four top-20 picks in 2015 and instead, the odds are in strong favor of Philly handpicking only one guy before the second round.

If Philly is able to somehow land the Lakers’ or Heat’s picks, if not both, and exit the lottery with three potential guys like Mudiay, Justise Winslow and Devin Booker, then we could be looking at a roster that resembles a mold of the future of basketball in Philadelphia.

But if not, another season where Philadelphia intentionally hangs around the NBA’s bottom feeders would be all but a sure bet.

Next: Our Latest NBA Mock Draft

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