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Nicolas Batum: Blazers Playoff X-Factor

By Chris St. Jean

March 4, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum (88) shoots against the Los Angeles Clippers during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
March 4, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum (88) shoots against the Los Angeles Clippers during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
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With Wesley Matthews out for the Portland Trail Blazers, expectations have been lowered when it comes to their playoff success this season.  When you look around the roster, there are a lot of known quantities.

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It’s not that the Blazers aren’t a good team, they are, but there are very little areas where they could improve internally that could possibly propel them farther in the playoffs than expected.

One such area is Nicolas Batum, who is by far, the biggest Blazers playoff x-factor they have on the roster.  The problem, this has been a disappointing season for Batum and relying on him to exceed expectations, could set the Blazers up for disappointment.

The most obvious reason for Batum’s difficult season has been his shooting, specifically from the outside.  For his career, Batum has shooting splits of .447/.363/.834.  This season, Batum is shooting just better than 40 percent from the field, and a rough 32.7 percent from 3-point range.  There’s a lot of blue below:

Shot Chart via http://peterbeshai.com/buckets
Shot Chart via http://peterbeshai.com/buckets /

This has been a glaring hole in the Blazers offense all season long mostly because, to their credit or detriment I suppose, the Blazers have continued to trust in Batum.

The Blazers offense has been predicated on ball movement and trusting that all five guys can knock down whatever open shot the defense decides to surrender to them.  When Wes was shooting 39 percent and Batum 36 percent from long range last season, that was perfectly suitable.  This season, all too often great Blazers offensive possessions have resulted in Nicolas Batum missed 3-pointers.

As the season went along, Batum began to display an unwillingness to shoot.  He has averaged between 10 and 12 field goal attempts each of the last four seasons and is taking only 8.5 per game this year.  It has disrupted the offensive flow for the Blazers.

Batum has not only turned down open 3-pointers, but he is less aggressive overall on offense.  A career 11.3 points per game scorer who has averaged more than 12 each of the last four seasons, Batum is down to only 9.6 points per game this season.

Of course, the appeal of Batum has always been his versatility, not his pure scoring ability.  In that regard he has contributed this season.  Batum has always been a solid rebounder at his position.  Although down from his healthy 7.5 rebounds per game last season, he’s pulling in just less than six per game this year.

Batum’s passing ability is what sets him apart from many other small forwards in the game, although he didn’t start his career that way.  After averaging no more than 1.5 assists per game in his first three seasons, he has averaged almost exactly 5.0 over the last three.

His assist percentage has hovered around 20 percent this season even as his usage rate has dropped, according to Basketball Reference.  Relative to his position this is an elite skill.  According to NBA.com, Batum is eighth among NBA forwards (minimum 50 games) in assist percentage, just above a noted elite passer and fellow countryman, Boris Diaw.

Batum has always had a strangely positive reputation as a defensive player.  I think much of that is because he looks the part and also because we’re still so poor at quantifying individual defense.  It’s also very obvious when Batum is asked to guard opposing teams’ point guards rather than Damian Lillard.

In those matchups, Batum’s length gives him an advantage he doesn’t have against other small forwards.  What’s often missed in those situations is that Wes Matthews had always been the glue perimeter defender that allowed Portland to move Batum around.

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    • Batum has the third-worst defensive rating among his Portland teammates at 102.5 (only Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee are worse) and that number is by far the best he’s had in his career.

    And of course, all Blazers fans are aware that the Blazers’ elite (third in the NBA) defensive efficiency of 99.3 before the Wes Matthews injury has plummeted since (105.3, 19th).

    Defensive metrics are dependent on so many variables (including the addition of Afflalo into the starting lineup), but what’s clear is Wes Matthews is the defensive linchpin on the perimeter, and we may have been overrating Batum all along.

    But for Batum and the Blazers, the regular season doesn’t really matter. Sure a few more made corner 3-pointers may have gotten the Blazers another win or two and maybe that gets them home court in one round, but ultimately, what matters for Batum is how he performs in the playoffs.

    Before last season, Batum played in only 353 minutes in playoff games in his career.  It’s hard to get a read on a player in that limited sample.  Last season, Batum played more than 450 minutes in 11 games.  In those games he averaged 13/6/4 on 47 percent shooting and 35 percent from long range.  Those numbers are fairly consistent with his numbers from that regular season.

    That’s good and bad for Portland.  If Batum averages those numbers this year (realistic), that’d be a huge plus given how inconsistent he’s been all season.  However, if he simply reproduces his production from this regular season in the post-season, the Blazers will likely be looking at being bounced in the first round.

    The thing with Batum is the what if.  He’s shown flashes of being brilliant at every aspect of the game.  If he could reproduce his career bests in points (14.3), rebounds (7.5), and assists (5.1) all in the same season, you’re looking at an elite player.  The only players to average at least those 14.3, 7.5, and 5.1 in a season since Batum has entered the league are Blake Griffin and some guy named LeBron, according to Basketball Reference.

    Is it crazy for Portland to hope to get that level of production out of Batum for a playoff series or two? Or three?

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