The Arron Afflalo Trade: Hindsight Is 20/20 For Portland

When the Portland Trail Blazers pulled the trigger on the Arron Afflalo trade early on the day of the NBA trade deadline, they did so under the assumption they were a title contender looking to bolster their bench.

At the time, the reasoning was sound. And although the trade was overshadowed by the fireworks that came later that day, it was generally viewed as a smart move by Portland.

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In the weeks leading up to the deadline, the Memphis Grizzlies brought in Jeff Green, the Houston Rockets brought in Josh Smith, and the Dallas Mavericks brought in Rajon Rondo. It was almost expected that Portland would do something. In fact, at the time, if the Blazers did not make a move to “reinforce” the roster prior to the trade deadline, most fans would have been disappointed.

However, after how the past month and a half has played out, the Blazers aren’t the same caliber of team they were in mid-February when they made the deal.

If Portland is no longer a title contender, which seems to be more and more evident after every game, then the deal should be analyzed from a different perspective.

Of course, it all started with the Wesley Matthews’ Achilles injury. It has put Afflalo in a tough spot because he was not brought in to replace Wes. Wes is impossible to replace.

Combine Matthews’ injury with LaMarcus Aldridge’s hand issues, Nicolas Batum’s lingering health problems, and other injuries up and down the roster, and it’s pretty clear that Portland is no longer a contender.

Not to mention that at the time the Western Conference looked much more wide open than it currently does. Golden State and San Antonio appear to be clear favorites now.

It’s tough to give up on a season when you spend so much of it believing you have a shot at the title. So I understand why some Portland fans and the Trail Blazers themselves would be frustrated by the sentiment.

Expecting Afflalo to produce at the level that Wes Matthews was after moving into the starting lineup is just unrealistic.

It has put Afflalo in a tough spot because he was not brought in to replace Wes. Wes is impossible to replace.

Afflalo was averaging 15.9 points and 3.7 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 43 percent from the field and 34 percent from the three-point line in Denver this season via NBA.com.

Since being traded to Portland, he’s averaged 12.5 points and 3.0 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 39 percent from the field and the three-point line. Those numbers are pretty consistent whether it’s coming off the bench before Matthews went down, or since being moved into the starting lineup.

Sure, his production has dropped slightly, and maybe even dramatically since his great season in Orlando last year, but that’s mostly attributed to his declining Usage Rate in each situation: 23.3 percent in Orlando, 20.0 percent in Denver, and 17.2 percent in Portland (via Basketball-Reference.com).

Playing on a team with two talents like LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, two high Usage players, Afflalo’s Usage and therefore production will never rival what he did in Orlando here in Portland. Wes Matthews had mastered the ability to impact the game in the way that he did while only using 19.9 percent of Portland’s possessions.

So honestly, what does the acquisition of Afflalo do for Portland now? The Blazers gave up a first round pick. Sure, it will likely be a late first rounder, but that pick still holds value right up until draft day.

Afflalo is a free agent at the end of the season. So is Aldridge, so is Matthews, and so is Robin Lopez. Will Arron Afflalo be a higher priority than any of those three players? I wouldn’t think so. Which means that it’s fairly unlikely that he will remain with Portland beyond this season.

The one scenario where that makes sense, is if West Matthews leaves. To some, Afflalo was viewed as Wes insurance. But after the injury, understanding Matthew’s loyalty to Portland, and his teammates loyalty and respect for him, that scenario seems more and more unlikely.

So given all that, I have to ask, does it make sense to spend a first round pick to rent an Afflalo plan for a team that may not advance past the first round of the NBA Playoffs?

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