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Wizards Doomed By Unfair Expectations

By Mark Vandeusen

Feb 28, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) dives for a loose ball against the Detroit Pistons during the first half at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 99 - 95. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 28, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) dives for a loose ball against the Detroit Pistons during the first half at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 99 - 95. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /
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On the last day of February, the Washington Wizards earned a victory for the first time in nearly three weeks.  Here’s how Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post began his postgame recap:

"The Washington Wizards won a basketball game Saturday night. A month ago, the statement would have hardly merited notice. That was back when the Wizards were plowing through one of the league’s weakest schedules and creating lofty expectations. But when you lose six straight games and 13 of 17, a win elicits excitement and relief — even if the win, a 99-95 triumph over the Detroit Pistons, was nearly a buzz-killing collapse."

Washington led by as many as 21 points in the third quarter before eventually hanging on and winning by four.  The Wizards relied on 34 minutes from old man Paul Pierce, who’d missed the previous two games with a bruised knee.  Bradley Beal took the floor for the first time since Feb. 5, but scored just eight points on 2-for-10 shooting in 33 minutes.

Was it a victory that might get Washington’s once-promising season back on track?

If I’m being honest, probably not.  The key phrase from Castillo’s quote above is “lofty expectations.”  While discussing the topic of coach Randy Wittman‘s job security, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst recently said the following:

"There’s a major difference in the NBA when you flip the page to being a team of expectations as opposed to a team of potential. They were a team of potential last year; now they’re a team of expectations."

It’s time (past time, actually) for Wizards fans to temper their expectations–we need to come to terms with the fact that this club was never as good as we thought it was.  Take a look at the graphic ESPN Stats & Info tweeted last week:

After the defeat at the hands of the lowly Timberwolves, the Wizards traveled to Philadelphia to take on the equally-bad 76ers.  There was hope that a team dinner the night before might allow Washington to regroup and turn things around:

The subsequent loss in Philadelphia, followed by the win in Detroit, left the Wizards with a 3-9 record in February.  They now sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference at 34-26, only 1.5 games ahead of the No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks.

Obviously Washington is not as bad as it looked last month, but the club also isn’t likely to approach the lofty standards it set in November and December.  The writing was on the wall for a natural regression to the mean.

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Castillo notes the soft early schedule, but in addition the Wizards fared surprisingly well (read: lucky) in close games.  Through Jan. 17, they went 17-6 in contests decided by single digits.  Since that time Washington is 3-10 when the margin of victory is less than 10 points.

A similar indicator was the club’s scoring differential.  At one point the Wizards were 29-13, owners of a top-five record in the NBA.  However, at the time their scoring differential was just plus-2.6 points per game, the 11th-best in the league.

Remember when journeyman Rasual Butler was putting together a career year at age 35?  Through 28 games Butler went 44-for-86 on three-pointers (51.2 percent).  Did we really think that was going to continue?  Since Jan. 13 Butler has shot just 22.9 percent from long range.  After misfiring on 19 of his last 21 three-point attempts, Butler received a DNP-CD vs. the Pistons on Saturday.

The last victory the Wizards had against a team with a winning record was over the Chicago Bulls back on Jan. 14.  On Tuesday Washington will get a chance to try to right its ship against a depleted Bulls squad missing Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler.

Maybe that’s a sign the Wizards’ luck is shifting back in the right direction.

Next: Wizards' realistic chances of signing Ray Allen

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