The NBA Play-In Tournament is supposed to be a pathway into the playoffs. It's an event to increase interest late in the season, rescue teams that end up in 9th or 10th place, and decrease tanking as teams push for the final spots in the playoff field.
Technically, therefore, what is at stake in Friday night's Play-In Games is the eighth and final spots in the playoff bracket. Yet with two juggernauts awaiting those teams in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, who combined for 132 wins this season, there is not much of a reward waiting for the teams who win.
On the other hand, an unexpected storyline is emerging as the teams prepare to play on Friday night. Whoever wins will advance into the playoff field, but whoever loses will fall back into the lottery -- and that could cause untold chaos to unfold for the 2025 NBA Draft.
In the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks are hosting the Miami Heat. Despite winning three more games than Miami and hosting the game, Atlanta is a 1.5-point underdog vs the Heat. Both Miami and Atlanta also have draft picks in play to be traded, adding intrigue to their final landing spots.
The Western Conference has a more lopsided matchup as the Dallas Mavericks come in shorthanded due to injury and front office malpractice. The Memphis Grizzlies are hosting and favored by 6.5 points, but the best player in the series wears a Dallas uniform so anything could happen.
There are implications for the NBA Draft no matter who wins on Friday, but there is one specific scenario that could unlock true chaos. If both of the teams that met in the 2011 NBA Finals win -- Miami and Dallas, the two No. 10 seeds and road teams for Friday night's contest -- there will be fantastic and chaotic shockwaves that ripple through the league.
Miami and Dallas winning is maximum chaos
If Miami and Dallas both win, that will push the Memphis Grizzlies and the Atlanta Hawks down into the lottery despite having better records than the teams who defeated them. That shakes up the order of teams in and around the lottery, and given that a number of teams have pick protections at play,
Starting at the bottom, if the Grizzlies lose they will fall into the lottery with a record significantly better than anyone else; they will be in the 14th spot in the lottery, with a 2.4 percent chance to leap into the Top 4. What's more, they traded their first-round pick this season with a lottery protection on it; at the time they were a top-4 team in the Western Conference, so it seemed almost certain to convey.
Now there is a very real chance that the Grizzlies retain their pick this season, and in doing so, the Washington Wizards instead get a pair of middling seconds. So the Wizards are therefore massive Memphis fans Friday night to ensure they get a first -- it would fall between 18 and 20 -- rather than nothing of value if the Grizzlies lose.
By replacing the 39-win Mavericks in the lottery, they also push a couple of teams up in the lottery standings. That includes the 40-win Sacramento Kings, who would land at 13th if Dallas wins but Miami loses. However, if the Heat also win, that bumps the Atlanta Hawks into the lottery -- who, at 40-42, would be tied with the Kings.
Here is where it gets truly interesting. The Hawks owe their first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs completely unprotected, so it's heading out either way. The Spurs would obviously love for that to be a lottery pick, increasing their chances at landing Cooper Flagg or another Top-4 prospect. That's all the more true after they traded the Chicago Bulls' first-round pick back to them in the De'Aaron Fox / Zach LaVine trade. It was Top-10 protected, and in this scenario the Bulls would be pushed up to 11th, meaning the Spurs missed out on the best possible selection that pick could have been.
For the Hawks, however, they do have a path to a first-round pick this season, because the Sacramento Kings owe them a Top-12 protected pick. Currently, the Kings are sitting in 14th, meaning they would send their pick to Atlanta. If the Hawks and Grizzlies both lose, suddenly they are tied for 12th. There will be a coin flip to determine who gets 12th and who gets 13th; if the Hawks get 12th they send a better pick to the Spurs and almost certainly get the Kings' pick, but if the Kings get 12th they almost certainly keep their pick, and the Hawks get nothing.
It gets better! The Miami Heat are dealing with a protected pick situation of their own. They owe a lottery-protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder this season and strongly want it to convey. The team is trying to win to make the playoffs; the organization is trying to win in order to convey their pick.
If they lose and keep their pick, that means the obligation to the Thunder rolls over into next season -- which pushes back the pick they owe the Charlotte Hornets. Currently that pick is protected in 2027, but if it is pushed back it becomes an entirely unprotected 2028 first. That not only opens up gargantuan risk in 2028, it limits what the Heat can do trading picks to upgrade the team.
If the Grizzlies and Hawks lose, it will mean the Heat get to send their first, but that the Kings may not; the Spurs and Bulls get better pick situations; and the Grizzlies get a lottery pick while the Wizards are left out in the cold. 10 franchises are directly impacted by these two games on Friday night.
If you want maximum chaos, root for Dallas and Miami to win. If you are invested because your team is involved in this convoluted tangle of destinies, buckle up. It could get insane.