The first two weeks of the NBA season are the perfect time to overreact to what has happened.
The only official data available for a team is by definition a small sample. Very good teams have a stretch where they go 1-5 or 2-4 all the time. When it happens at the start of the season, however, it feels like a much bigger deal.
Which teams off to a slow start are doomed to end the season at the bottom? And which teams are stumbling early but have hope of catching their stride in the weeks to come?
Category 1: The Relegation Zone
Sacramento Kings - The Kings were always going to be near the bottom of the standings, but even so, this has been a nasty start to the season. The Kings are 0-5 and are being outscored by an average of 16.6 points per game. Darius Acuff can score, but it takes him 100 shots per game to do so.
When national podcasts are doing segments on how long it will be until your team gets their first win (and landing on 0-13) it has not been a good start to the season. Any optimism in Sacramento has been snuffed out.
Chicago Bulls - The Bulls are just behind the Kings with a -15.8 point differential, but some of that is fueled by their up-tempo style. If they are outmatched, adding possessions only makes the losses worse. Caleb Wilson has real juice, but this team is going nowhere this season.
Milwaukee Bucks - Anyone hoping that the collection of real talent in Milwaukee was going to result in a plucky, competitive team has now had their hope ripped away. Their starting lineup is getting demolished, Their best veterans to dangle in a trade are playing terrible, only further depressing a fan base that got drug through the Giannis sweepstakes for years.
Category 2: Bad but feisty
Brooklyn Nets - The Nets are playing a lot of really young players around their two veteran forwards, and their inexperience and weaknesses are certainly on display. This team is also well-coached and playing hard, as evidenced by their narrow loss to the Boston Celtics earlier this week. There are some reasons for optimism even amidst an 0-5 start.
New Orleans Pelicans - The Pelicans are 1-4 but only a few plays away from 3-2, and they are playing like a team that should fight their way into the mid-30s in wins this season. Their offense in particular has shown some real life, with second-year point guard Jeremiah Fears taking a step up and Dejounte Murray back from injury.
Category 3 - Just Depressing
LA Clippers - The Clippers get a category all to themselves. They have been devastated by injuries to start the season, and most of their players who are suiting up are playing terribly. They are buried under the weight of their offseason scandal. Knowing they don't have their own first-round pick is only more pain added on top. They will get healthier, have a top-tier coach and will rack up some wins. For what purpose? That's not entirely clear.
Category 4 - Reason for Panic
Utah Jazz - The Utah Jazz have seen Keyonte George continue his growth from last season and received excellent two-way contributions from second-year wing Ace Bailey. They have also been punked multiple times by teams that were supposed to be worse than them, and with injuries to each of their starting frontcourt players, they may quickly get too far back to catch up.
Phoenix Suns - The Suns have had some minor injuries issues, but overall they have just been terrible. Miles Bridges appears to be as bad of an offseason addition as every media member and NBA fan thought, Jalen Green is not a point guard, and the fun of last season has dissipated into the cold hard reality of regression. They don't look anything like a playoff team.
Category 5 - It Will Get Better
Shout outs to the teams who got off to slow starts but will be just fine: the Miami Heat are figuring a new mixture out, but they will be a playoff team; the Indiana Pacers were always going to start slow, and losing Haliburton for a few weeks is not ideal, but their eyes are set on the playoffs; the New York Knicks need to stop losing games, but they've had a hard schedule and don't need to sweat the regular season; the Golden State Warriors started 0-3 but have gone 3-0 since, all wins over playoff teams.
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