The Oklahoma City Thunder may still be one of the NBA’s most dominant teams, but their road back to the Finals could be far more difficult than expected.
Even if Oklahoma City secures the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the playoff bracket could line up in a brutal way. Instead of an easy path, the Thunder may need to go through two dangerous contenders just to reach the conference finals.
For a defending champion built around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, that possibility dramatically raises the stakes.
The Denver Nuggets remain a dangerous playoff opponent
The Denver Nuggets remain one of the biggest threats in the Western Conference. They might have beaten them last year and also recently during the regular season, but never underestimate the Joker, who plays at MVP level once again.
Even if Denver enters the playoffs as a lower seed, few teams would feel comfortable facing them in a second-round matchup. The Nuggets have playoff experience, elite half-court execution, and one of the most difficult offensive systems to stop in a seven-game series.
Teams led by championship-caliber superstars tend to become even more dangerous in the postseason.
For Oklahoma City, that means the second round could already feel like a conference finals matchup, but this is only half of the story.
The San Antonio Spurs are emerging as a nightmare matchup
If the Thunder survive that series, things might not get easier. The Spurs are currently slashing the league, especially with Victor Wembanyama
They are quickly turning into one of the most intriguing playoff threats in the West. With elite young talent and rapidly improving depth, San Antonio is beginning to look like a legitimate contender.
Their length, defensive versatility, and ability to run the floor could create serious problems for Oklahoma City. Young teams often take a leap in the postseason once they gain confidence, and the Spurs appear to be trending in that direction.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander faces a much tougher repeat challenge
For Gilgeous-Alexander, repeating as champion was never going to be easy. At least in the East Tyrese Haliburton is injured, that guy was killing the last postseason.
However, the Finals might not present the biggest antagonist anymore. The Western Conference has become one of the deepest and most competitive environments in basketball. Even top seeds rarely enjoy smooth playoff runs anymore.
Instead, contenders must navigate multiple elite Finals worthy opponents before reaching the Finals. Basically the spots 3 to 7 are having the same standing. Even after the Spurs and Nuggets, the competition is extremely fierce.
That reality could place an enormous burden on Gilgeous-Alexander to consistently perform at an MVP level throughout the playoffs.