Few teams have as much riding on the summer as the San Antonio Spurs. They have a talented young team that is just a few pieces away from emerging as true contenders next season.
While they have been linked to a couple of stars, they will soon have to address a brewing situation regarding 2022 10th overall pick Jeremy Sochan. Sochan is up for a contract extension this summer, and it's anyone's guess whether he will be extended or not.
Spurs face a gut-wrenching Jeremy Sochan dilemma this summer
Figuring out his true value is tricky, considering that his NBA role is still being fleshed out. While he was a starter for most of his career, he was moved to the bench this season, partly due to fit issues. He simply doesn't fit well offensively with star Victor Wembanyama, with his lack of shooting basically making him a center on offense.
That's likely why the Spurs chose to continue starting Harrison Barnes over Sochan, and their fit was far better. Barnes can bury open threes, attack closeouts, and score off of cuts.
As a power forward, Barnes is an above-average shooter at a position of need for the Spurs. Particularly with De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle being the likely starting backcourt next season and them possibly negatively affecting the Spurs' spacing. That means that Sochan could continue coming off the bench, which could hurt his value.
The Spurs and Jeremy Sochan may not agree to a contract extension
A 4-year, $80 million contract extension that has been floated by Spurs fans. That might be closer to his value if he is a starting-caliber forward. However, it's not clear whether he is actually a starter.
His lack of improvement as a shooter is concerning, and after three seasons of working on his shot, it's fair to wonder if it will ever start to come around. If it does, then his value to the team goes way up. That could prove to be a steal of a deal with him making only 11.7% of the projected $170.6 salary cap during the first year of that extension.
Then again, he might not agree to that deal considering the dramatically rising cap. However, it's also hard to see him getting 4 years and $100 million. With the salary cap rising 10% every season, Sochan would eat up, at most, only 14.6% of the cap.
Still, even when factoring in the skyrocketing cap, the Spurs are wary of paying him that much. Barring a big improvement next season, which is possible but uncertain, it's hard to imagine he'll be worth $25 million a season. Even with cap raises. After all, the Spurs need to be incredibly careful committing that much money to any player when building around Wembanyama.
Sochan has improved in some areas, particularly finishing at the rim, improving his shooting from 60.2% to 69.3% this season. That helped him dramatically increase his efficiency, but his shooting is still a big question mark.
He still has a hitch in his step, even though it tends to come and go. He'll have to continue to work on that shot to earn a starting role on a would-be contender.
Can the Spurs and Sochan find common ground on an extension?
If the Spurs are wise, they could opt to let him have restricted free agency (RFA) next summer. That would give him the chance to prove himself worthy of a big contract, and him being an RFA might dissuade teams from tying up cap space to offer him one. In that case, the Spurs would be more confident that he can live up to a big contract without necessarily having to pay more for him than they had if they extended him.
One thing that works to his benefit Sochan is that the Spurs have a recent history of signing their first-round picks to extensions. The Spurs previously signed former first-round picks Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell to extensions, but each was favorable to the team and not the player.
Even so, getting all four of them to sign those contracts took impressive negotiating, and perhaps they can agree with Sochan. Signing him to a 4-year, $90 million extension with $10 million in performance-based incentives could work for both sides.
The Spurs would get him on a reasonable contract and, even if he hits his incentives, could still outperform. Sochan would also have financial incentive to improve his shooting due to those incentives.
Overall, the Spurs and Sochan may struggle to find common ground on an extension this summer. A deal could be hampered by concerns surrounding his long-term fit, but a potential incentive-based $90 million extension would keep him from being overpaid and lock him up for the next five seasons.