After failing to make the playoffs for five straight years, the San Antonio Spurs have gotten off to an encouraging start to the 2024-25 season. Despite that, there is a clear problem that they will need to address to be able to live up to their full potential.
The frontcourt pairing of Jeremy Sochan and Victor Wembanyama is seen as the team's long-term answer at power forward and center. However, the numbers suggest that they don't fit well together.
The Spurs were -3.6 points per 100 possessions when Sochan and Wembanyama shared the floor last season. That alone probably wouldn't raise alarm bells since the Spurs were 22-60, and you would be hard-pressed to find a good two-man pairing on the team that logged at least 1,000 minutes.
Nevertheless, in an admittedly small sample size, Sochan and Wembanyama have a -1.5 net rating per 100 possessions this season. Combine last season and the start of this season, and a trend seems to be emerging between the two players, and they aren't particularly good fits together on offense. The Spurs struggled to get buckets with both players playing together and ranked 26th in offensive rating before Sochan got injured.
Compare that to Harrison Barnes and Wembanyama posting a stellar 9.4 net rating per 100 possessions and the Spurs climbing to 19th in offensive rating since Sochan's injury. Based on that and the eye test, it's clear the Sochan shouldn't be starting alongside Wembanyama.
The San Antonio Spurs have a brewing offensive problem among two of their best players.
The biggest reason that Sochan and Wembanyama haven't worked well on offense is that Sochan isn't an offensive threat from the outside. Overall, Sochan has been far better offensively this season, with him being more confident putting the ball on the floor and attacking the paint.
Even so, the Spurs have other options at the four, particularly Barnes, who is a reliably good shooter and has proven to be terrific at cutting to the basket for easy layups. That resulted in him recently winning Player of the Week after scoring at least 20 points in three straight games.
With San Antonio's bench having questionable shooters, including Tre Jones, Blake Wesley, Stephon Castle (once he returns to the second unit), and Keldon Johnson, adding Sochan to the mix makes for an awkward fit.
The Spurs may have to break up the Jeremy Sochan and Victor Wembanyama pairing to rescue their offense.
There is only so much mixing and matching that can be done when five rotation players are inconsistent shooters. Adding Devin Vassell back to the mix will help and probably push a player like Wesley out of the rotation as well as limit playing time for Castle, who's thrived as a starter.
Still, the Spurs should put their best foot forward by continuing to start Barnes at the four, next to Wembanyama, Chris Paul, Vassell, and Julian Champagnie. That would give the Spurs four above-average shooters, with Wembanyama also inching his way up to being an above-average bomber from outside.
San Antonio will still have to play Sochan and Wembanyama together, but since Wembanyama already plays minutes with the team's bench, pairing them together against opponents' second units might yield better results.