The Rockets are still waiting for their $100 million gamble to pay off

The resurgent Houston Rockets have been the surprise team of the NBA this season. Part of their success has been their balanced offensive attack, including Alperin Sengun and Jalen Green. This after the Rockets opted to re-sign both players prior to the start of the season, though they curiously gave Green a shorter contract extension.

Green is having a confounding season, averaging 19.4 points per game, but with a ridiculously bad 51.4% true shooting. His other advanced stats suggest that he is a below-average player, and the Rockets are still hoping that he begins to live up to being taken second overall in the 2021 NBA draft. The Rockets and Green agreed to a three-year extension that will pay him $105 million.

However, he has only two years guaranteed on that deal, which would allow him to hit unrestricted free agency far earlier than he otherwise would have had he signed a standard four- or 5-year extension.

The Rockets opting not to extend Green for longer could come back to bite both sides, with Green not fully cashing in on his extended hot streak to close out last season and Houston not locking him up for longer.

On the other hand, his inconsistent play might have given the Rockets pause when discussing a long-term deal with Green.

The Houston Rockets gambled on Jalen Green and are still waiting to see if he will pay off. 

With Green able to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027 or 2028, he could be among the top free agents available. Several teams may be willing to pony up and pay a 25-year-old free agent with his upside. Especially with many stars opting to skip free agency to lock up money on extensions.

Green also could be a star by then, making him a more attractive target for teams with cap space but are short on stars. However, he could just as easily continue to be a high-volume, inefficient scorer. If he does break out, then the Rockets can still offer him a max contract, allowing them to pay him more than another team.

That is one reason why they likely agreed to the deal, with another being that it avoids them having to match a big offer sheet from another team. They also still have the opportunity to trade him after this season, and he will be easier to move since other teams know how much he will make in 2025-26, 2026-27, and 2027-28.

Overall, Green has shown extended flashes of stardom but also inconsistent play. That makes the decision to extend him a gamble for the Rockets, but his future with the team will depend on how he plays this season.