For a team that nearly made the Western Conference Finals last season, the Denver Nuggets have been largely written off ahead of the 2024-25 season. That was due to an admittedly awful offseason that saw them lose a starter, their first-round selection to injury, and sign their second-best player to a questionable contract.
Nevertheless, they may actually be better than many expect, according to Ryan Blackburn of MileHighSports. Blackburn unearthed an interesting stat that suggests that they could be better than last season.
— Ryan Blackburn (@NBABlackburn) October 12, 2024
After losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) in free agency, third-year guard Christian Braun will likely be their newest starter. The early returns have been encouraging in the preseason, but a bigger sample size from last season hints at his potential impact as a starter.
Christian Braun could give the Denver Nuggets an unexpected boost.
Last season, surprisingly, the Nuggets best two-man pairing wasn't Jokic and Jamal Murray. Instead, it was Jokic and Braun who had an outrageously good net rating of +15.4 points per 100 possessions.
That was thanks to the Nuggets being outstanding with both players on the floor, regardless of the other three players in the lineup. Especially on defense, and over a large sample size too, with it being the best 2-man lineup in the NBA minimum 70 games.
The offense with those two wasn't as good, relatively speaking, with the Jokic-Murray pairing being 8.7 points better in offensive rating. To their credit, Jokic and Braun were 8.8 points better in terms of defensive rating than the Jokic-Murray pairing. Perhaps more interesting is the fact that the Jokic and KCP pairing had a net rating of 112.5 and were 10 points worse in defensive rating.
What does this mean for the Denver Nuggets this season?
Both Jokic and Braun are clearly underrated defensively, perhaps for similar reasons, but Braun has shown himself to be an effective team defender. Virtually any lineup with Jokic will likely generate points in droves, which should help to ensure that the Nuggets remain a top-5 offense.
However, they were eighth in defensive rating—more than respectable. But with Braun playing starter minutes, they should be far better on that end of the floor. Even a minor jump from eighth to fifth in defensive rating could be the difference between being the first or second seed in the West or even making the Western Conference Finals.
Equally as important is how they fare on offense with Braun, who was a low-volume, high percentage 3-point shooter. He will have to increase his volume without sacrificing accuracy but assuming that he can, then the Nuggets could be better than expected this season.