There is a reason the 2004 Detroit Pistons are still referenced today. They are one of the rare exceptions, a championship team without a clear MVP-level player.
This is the clearest trend among championship teams. They are led by one of the best players in the world.
In the first piece of this series, I argued there are five teams that should be considered contenders this season. Let’s evaluate each player leading those teams.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
This is straightforward. Shai is the favorite to win the MVP this season and is the reigning MVP and Finals MVP. He checks every box required of a championship-caliber first option.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Cade’s case for the best player on a championship team is much more interesting. He is having the best season of his career and continues to improve as a scorer and playmaker.
However, history is not on his side. Since 2000, nearly every championship team has been led by a player with multiple First-Team All-NBA selections.
In that timeframe, the only teams that won the championship despite their best player not already earning multiple All-NBA First-Team honours are the pesky 2004 Detroit Pistons and the 2006 Miami Heat.
Could Cade Cunningham fit the mold of a young Dwayne Wade? It is possible, but banking on the exception over the rule is always risky.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wemby’s case is very similar to Cunningham’s, but he is even younger and more unproven. There is no doubt about his ceiling. He is widely viewed as a generational talent and one of the most unique prospects in NBA history.
His impact on both ends of the floor is already elite. Who can forget when Adrian Wojnarowski said:
“This is the most highly anticipated player to ever enter the NBA. ... Maybe the greatest prospect in the history of team sports.”
However, even historically great players typically need time before reaching the ultimate level of success. Asking Wembanyama to lead a title run at this stage of his career would place him in extremely rare territory.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
This is the biggest question of this whole article: how healthy is Jayson Tatum? When fully available, Tatum has already proven he can be the best player on a championship team. He has multiple First-Team All-NBA selections and has been the centerpiece of a title-winning roster.
Jaylen Brown deserves a mention in this section. He has leveled up his game with Tatum out this season and performed at an All-NBA level. It should also be noted that when Boston won the 2024 Championship, it was Brown who was named Eastern Conference MVP and Finals MVP.
As good as Brown has been, Tatum has the proven track record of being one of the truly elite players in this league. He was named to four consecutive All-NBA First Teams before this season.
If Boston is going to win a championship, it needs to be Tatum leading the charge, not Brown. It is just impossible to predict if Tatum is up to the challenge.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
With all due respect to Shai, Jokic is the best player in the world. He is a three-time MVP, a Finals MVP, and is having another incredible season. There is no debate here.
Which teams pass this test?
Oklahoma City and Denver clearly meet this standard. Boston has a path, but it is entirely dependent on Tatum’s health. Detroit and San Antonio, while talented and ahead of schedule, are relying on players who have yet to prove they can carry a team through a deep playoff run.