NBA Playoffs: Why each series may already be over after surprising Game 1 trend

The first two days of the 2024 NBA playoffs have come and gone, and while there was much speculation about lots of potential upsets, something more unexpected happened... The games all went full-chalk and the better seed won every matchup.

In a day and age in the NBA where parody seems to be king, these Game 1 results indicate that home court advantage is still incredibly useful. This is especially true when looking at the historical trends of winning game 1 at home in the first round of the playoffs:

Home court advantage still matters after first 8 playoff games.

Teams that win game 1 at home in the first round are 105-13 (89%) in those series. This suggests that after the first game results where no home teams lost, even one potential upset in the first round would be a long shot to occur now. Looking past the data focused specifically on the home court team winning Game 1, of the 352 first round series that have happened, the team (home or away) that wins the first game has a series record of 280-72 (79.5%-win rate).

Home court advantage versus health is always the biggest debate among NBA coaching staffs, front offices, and players. This season looks to prove that home court advantage is more important than health entering the playoffs (at least for the first round).

So far, the Bucks have held down homecourt against the Pacers without Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Clippers handled the Mavs without Kawhi Leonard, and the Knicks squeezed out a win over the 76ers without Julius Randle.

Last season, the Nuggets also made a case that having home court advantage was crucial, as they led every Western Conference playoff series that they played 2-0, thanks to getting to play in Denver to start every series.

They went 10-1 at home in the playoffs overall and ultimately won their first NBA title, thanks to having home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Now NBA fans get to see how the home teams continue to fare in Game 2 of the playoffs in the first half of this week!