It's officially that time of year. The beginning of the playoff push (play-in for some teams) is here, including the pressure of playing in playoff basketball. The recent addition of the play-in tournament makes the playoff expansion to 10 teams intriguing and incentivizing for more teams, but creates a crucial caveat. More teams are electing to sit in mediocrity or shoot for the fences and go all-in.
This season, in particular, has seen the emergence of dominant, small-market franchises. Those franchises have risen to the top of the league, combined with the presence of the league's top, historical, big market teams remaining firm atop the league. However, countless teams continue to label themselves as 'contenders' each season, with an increased chance at making the postseason.
Yet, what defines a contender remains to be seen. There's been a plethora of overachieving teams in league history who fall short in the playoffs. With that in mind, we can thank Hall of Famer and former Head Coach Phil Jackson for his '40-20' rule.
Considering his rule, only four exceptions exist since 1979-80: 2021 Bucks, 2006 Heat, 2004 Pistons, and 1995 Rockets. Of those four teams, only one made a midseason acquisition (Detroit traded for Rasheed Wallace). Below, we further detail.
No top dog has emerged between Cleveland and Oklahoma City
Two teams have removed themselves from the pack as frontrunners for the NBA Finals. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder both atop their respective conferences, doing so with 50-plus wins.
In even more impressive fashion, both teams satisfied the requirement of Phil Jackson's '40-20' rule long ago, reaching 40 wins before eclipsing 10 losses. For each team, it feels like 'title or bust' for them this season.
The Cavaliers made a coaching change after last season, firing J.B. Bickerstaff and hiring Kenny Atkinson, who's seemingly made all the difference for the Cavaliers. Specifically, on the offensive side of the ball.
After being one of the league's worst offenses and top defenses last season, Cleveland now sports one of the best on each side of the ball this season. The Cavs' offense has improved by nearly 11 points and five percent (three percent from three), led by several key additions to its core.
Additions (free agent signing Ty Jerome and rookie first rounder Jaylon Tyson) have provided depth for the Cavs this season. Jerome has brought consistency to the second unit, sparking consideration for several awards (Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player).
Tyson's recent production has improved, with several big games for the Cavs' bench. The most recent addition, De'Andre Hunter, was acquired at the trade deadline. His defense and shooting have been huge as 'the missing piece.'
The Thunder, like Cleveland, have been led by a dominant combination of continuity and new pieces creating excellence. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's multiseason dominance has continued into 2025, with his first MVP award potentially on the horizon.
One of the league's best front offices, led by general manager Sam Presti, has continued to work magic on the rest of the league. That magic included offseason acquisitions Isaiah Hartenstein (free agency) and Alex Caruso (trade).
With injuries hampering nearly the entirety of Chet Holmgren's season thus far, Hartenstein has been a reliable piece for the Thunder in the midst of a career year, while Caruso has been an influential piece to Oklahoma City's defense.
With two All-Stars, emerging role players (Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe) locked in long-term and a sustainable identity, the Western Conference appears to run through Oklahoma City for the forseeable future.
Boston's mission to 'repeat' as champs remains intact
Despite the blazing hot starts from the Cavaliers and Thunder, neither team can claim being the league's 'defending champs'. That statement belongs to the Boston Celtics, who have flown under the radar this season.
Not quite as dominant as last season, the Celtics firmly sit above Phil Jackson's '40-20' principle, with a 44-18 record as of March 6. Jayson Tatum leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists per game, while Jaylen Brown remains the clear second option on this team.
Even with limited depth and two starters missing 45 combined games (30 for Kristaps Porzingis and 15 for Jrue Holiday), Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser have emerged as pivotal pieces for Boston's run at a repeat.
Pritchard appears to be the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year, vastly improving from last season. Al Horford remains the savvy veteran of the group, and Derrick White's numbers have increased from last season. The Celtics remain the team to beat until proven otherwise.
Boston's remained in 'airplane mode' for this regular season, in preparation for a deep playoff run. Oklahoma City's destined to avenge its playoff shortcoming from last season, while Cleveland's giving 'new kid on the block' energy similar to the Thunder last season. With such few exceptions to the 40-20 rule, one of these three teams will likely be hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy next season.