Everyone loves a good underdog story, and while this year’s playoffs features many heavy favorites, we’ve seen shocking upsets defy similar odds before. These teams’ stars will have to show out to pull it off, but it really comes down to the supporting cast stepping their games up when it matters most.
Here’s each lower seed’s X-factor that can swing a series and help the underdogs do the unthinkable.
The keys to an eastern conference upset
Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles
Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl will be tasked with slowing down Cleveland’s dynamic front court, but quality bench production from the rookie could be a difference maker.
CMB finished off the season strong, a +13 through his last ten games, and if he can bring that into this 4-5 matchup, the Raptors will be able to fight Cleveland’s big man tandem with depth. Murray-Boyles also provides a spark that can shift momentum for a Raptors team loaded with talent.
Atlanta Hawks: Jonathan Kuminga
Atlanta’s starting lineup has no shortage of scoring. Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have both taken their games to another level, CJ McCollum provides a steadying offensive presence, and Onyeka Okongwu has evolved into a reliable stretch big.
The question comes when the Hawks look to their reserves, and that’s where Kuminga comes in. The Knicks generate the second fewest bench points among remaining teams, and if Kuminga can provide a scoring punch, Atlanta’s chances against a starter-heavy Knicks squad look a lot better.
Philadelphia 76ers: Andre Drummond
Joel Embiid is injured when it matters, a reality that the Sixers seemingly can’t get away from. That being said, Andre Drummond is one of the most reliable backup centers in the league and can help Philly stall for Embiid to return from his appendicitis.
Drummond has been an unstoppable force on the glass for his entire career and has even flashed some scoring touch lately. Boston’s center rotation is the weakest it’s been in the Tatum era, and the Sixers need a big series from Andre Drummond to capitalize.
Orlando Magic: Tristan Da Silva
No matter how you slice it, Orlando cannot shoot the three. Other than Desmond Bane, no Magic starter shoots above 35% from behind the arc. The Magic are facing the best defensive team in the conference, and the Magic are going to have to be able to score at all three levels if they want to steal a few games.
With how unreliable the Magic’s stars are at shooting, Jamahl Mosley will need the help of Tristan Da Silva’s shot making to keep Orlando competitive.
Western conference's most important X-Factors
Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard
On paper, the Rockets have one of the most talented offenses in the league, but in reality it’s one of the ugliest. Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson limit the ability to space the floor, and with Kevin Durant questionable, their problem only worsens. This makes Reed Sheppard essential to opening up the offense.
When Sheppard is hitting, defenses are forced to stay attached, which gives Sengun more room to operate down low and creates cleaner looks across the board. Houston’s offense has been shaky since the All Star break, and if Sheppard isn’t knocking down shots, points can be hard to come by.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Bones Hyland
Denver’s offense is nearly impossible to stop. They have too many capable scorers surrounding the formidable Jokic and Murray duo. The T-Wolves best bet at taking on the Nuggets will be by exploiting Denver’s inconsistent defense.
Bones Hyland’s streaky scoring ability can be the catalyst to put Minnesota’s point production over the top. The former Nugget has the ability to create shots from anywhere on the court, which can be lethal if Denver’s defense finds itself in a funk. Hyland’s familiarity with the rims in Denver can make him especially dangerous on the road.
Portland Trailblazers: Robert Williams
It seems like forever ago when Robert Williams was the most impactful player on a finals team, but the “Time Lord” is just four years removed from being considered an elite starting center. Injuries and trades have relegated Williams to a smaller role in Portland, but his incredible timing and bounce are still there.
Matching up against a Spurs team led by Victor Wembanyama’s paint dominance and a slew of guards that love to get downhill, Robert Williams might be the deterrent the Blazers need to slow them down. Portland will need to control the paint in this series if they want to advance, and they’ll need WIlliams to perform at a high level to do so.
Phoenix Suns: Jalen Green
We’ve seen Jalen Green play comfortably as a number one option for the majority of his career, but he’s still finding his footing as an off-ball threat in Phoenix. As the season progressed he got more and more comfortable but we finally saw the Suns offense click with Green in the Play-In.
Nobody is built to shut down Phoenix’s guard-heavy offense better than the Thunder, and if the eight seed is going to pull off such a monumental upset, they’re going to need to be firing on all cylinders.
Devin Booker will likely have some rough games with all the looks OKC’s defense will throw at him, and Jalen Green is going to need to look like a number one option again to relieve some of that pressure.
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