Nuggets' fatal flaw risks ruining their championship hopes

It takes a full and balanced team to win an NBA championship. When facing the strongest basketball teams in the world, any flaw will be exploited. That is why you hardly see teams with weaknesses on one side of the ball make deep playoff runs. 

Since 2000, 19 of 26 NBA champions have ranked top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. In that same span, 24 of 26 champions ranked top 5 on at least one side of the ball. True contenders must be well-rounded, while also being elite somewhere.

This is the third article in a four part series. In part one, I established which teams I thought should be considered contenders. In part two, I looked at which of those teams had a true number one option leading them. This article will try and decide which contenders are balanced enough to take seriously. 

Which of our contenders are elite, yet balanced?

This season, every one of our five teams meets part of that criteria. Denver, Boston, and San Antonio are top 5 in offense. Oklahoma City, Detroit, San Antonio, and Boston are top 5 in defense. That means all five teams are elite enough on at least one end to win a championship.

Denver runs into issues on defense. The Nuggets rank 21st in defensive rating. Injuries have contributed to that number, but even a fully healthy version of this roster is unlikely to project as a top-tier defense. That puts a lot of pressure on their offense to carry them through four playoff series.

Denver is first in offensive rating, so if any team were going to rely solely on offense to win this year’s championship, then it would be the Nuggets.

They used that formula in 2023. Their 5th-ranked offense overcame their 15th-ranked defense to win the title. They have proven they can overcome a lackluster defense before, but it is asking a lot to do it again. The other four teams all rank inside the top 10 on both sides of the ball.

Who passes the second test?

Oklahoma City, Detroit, San Antonio, and Boston all pass comfortably. The only team that faces real questions about their balance is Denver.

It is possible that a fully healthy Denver team will be strong enough defensively to win a championship, but this core does not have a reputation of excelling on that side of the ball. They won the 2023 title with a league average defense, but doing it again would be difficult.