As the regular season nears its end, the standings are starting to solidify, and playoff matchups are beginning to take shape. On the other end of the spectrum, teams that are eliminated from playoff entry are in a war in the standings over draft odds. And then there’s the middle ground.
The eight teams that are in no man’s land, four of which earn a spot in the postseason. The other four narrowly miss a bid at the Larry O’Brien trophy while sabotaging their chance at a franchise-altering player in the draft.
This reality makes me wonder, is a team better off missing the play-in altogether, or should they put it all on the line and try to win it all?
Do play-in teams actually have a chance in the NBA playoffs?
Since its inception in 2021, only two teams that advanced through the play-in made it to the second round. While this seems to indicate that it’s more worthwhile to bow out early and secure a draft pick, it might not be so straightforward.
There have been seven teams from the tournament that pushed their entry round series to six games or better. This is even more remarkable when you account for the fact that they all matched up against finals contenders. The play-in also gives teams whose seasons were derailed by injuries a second chance.
The Lakers took advantage of this twice, once losing in six to the eventual runner-up Suns and once advancing all the way to the Western Conference Finals. There, they would fall to the eventual champion Nuggets.
The most notable play-in team was that same year’s Miami Heat, who entered the playoffs as an eight seed and then managed to find themselves in the NBA Finals.
Tanking doesn't do play-in teams any good
Statistically, however, the math doesn’t favor play-in teams to do much damage, but the draft lottery doesn’t do them any better. Out of twenty play-in teams to try their luck in the draft lottery, only three emerged with a top-ten pick.
Overall, teams that missed the playoffs improved the next year 10 out of 17 times, showing that to improve organically, a team needs to play in meaningful games. Teams that advanced through the play-in improved the following season 7 out of 12 times.
On average, teams are actually better after playing in the play-in tournament regardless of the outcome. If a team is trying to dictate their own future, then they should play the right way. To win.