The 2025 NBA draft is still six months away, but we already have an idea of potential strategies for NBA teams. Over the last 20 plus years, most teams have often favored younger players rather than more experienced prospects. The thought being that older players have less upside and while more experienced ones provide less potential bang for their buck. However, that is beginning to change.
With playoff teams often brushing up against the first or second tax apron, it is becoming harder to build great teams. Especially with those teams often having to trade first-round picks to be able to acquire veteran players to help them try and make a deep playoff run.
A consistent theme when talking with NBA folks about the NBA Draft (not just 2025, but in general): Teams aren't knocking older prospects down as much anymore. Contenders, especially those with apron issues, are looking for guys who can play right away. That's good for older…
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) December 3, 2024
Nevertheless, one potential way for contenders to try and add cheap rotation players is through the draft. Thanks to the Stepien rule, teams are forced to have a first-round pick in every other draft, a rule that has often saved teams from themselves.
With a need for more immediate help and cheap options, contenders are even maybe more willing to take a chance on a four-year player than they have in recent years. After all, there have been several high-profile four-year players that have been able to come in and provide playoff teams with ready-made rotation players.
The Lakers' draft steal exposed a simple hack for other playoff teams to replicate.
The Miami Heat's Jaime Jacques Jr., the Memphis Grizzlies' Zach Edey, and the Los Angeles Lakers' Dalton Knecht are recent examples of rookies who were able to come in and immediately help their team. The Lakers have two other recent examples of four-year players who are able to come in and help in Alex Caruso and Austin Reaves, despite both being undrafted.
While they may not have the upside of other players in their draft class, they have been able to carve out a role that they can grow into and eventually expand upon right out of the gate.
Now that teams will have to be far smarter with how they build their rosters, expect more experienced players to potentially be drafted higher than in recent years. Players like Draymond Green fell to the second round of the 2011 NBA Draft, partly because he didn't appear to have much upside.
The Golden State Warriors are still reaping the benefits of that mistake by other teams. Other four-year players, such as the Boston Celtics' Derrick White, have shown they can still get better despite being more fully formed.
Ultimately, potential vs. experience will still be a big discussion when it comes to drafting players. However, teams that are in or near the first or second apron may now prefer experienced prospects, with them likely being more ready to play.