After having lost 10 straight games, it would seem that the Miami Heat are tanking after trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors at the trade deadline. However, they have continued to play many of their best players instead of resting them in the hopes of losing games.
Of course, they are still losing games, but they actually have little incentive to tank given the complicated situation surrounding their draft pick. If they miss the playoffs this season, they could have not one but two picks in this year's draft, including a top 10 pick.
Given their recent track record of nailing their selections, including drafting Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Kellel Ware, that would seem like a great thing. Be that as it may, it's far more complicated than that, with the Heat owing two future first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets.
The Miami Heat have a big dilemma: to tank or not to tank
If the Heat missed the playoffs, then they could end up with the 8th pick if the season were to end today. Doing so would give them a 31.9% chance of jumping into the top four and selecting one of the four potential stars at the top of this draft class, including Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, and V.J. Edgecombe.
On the other hand, missing the playoffs this season would mean that they would not only lose their pick in 2026 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they would also lose their pick in 2028 to the Hornets. Not just that, but they would be barred from trading their pick in 2027 and 2029.
There's a stark difference in local media view and what I perceive as public/social media view of Heat missing playoffs and keeping 1st round pick. If Heat misses playoffs, it keeps next June pick but unprotected 2026 and 2028 firsts go to OKC and Charlotte. If Heat makes…
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) March 13, 2025
That would make it that much harder to make a big trade with the Stepien rule barring them from not having a first in consecutive drafts. Then again, if they were to somehow make the playoffs after losing 10 straight games, the Heat would be able to hold on to their 2026 pick.
The pick that they own from the Hornets would be lottery protected in 2027, and they could own their 2028 pick outright. They would also be able to trade their remaining first-round picks.
Picking which path to take is tricky considering they could set themselves up well if they keep their pick and jump into the top four or even nail their two selections in this year's draft. That would cost them two picks in the next 3 years, but it could be worth it considering that Adebayo is already 27 and Herro is 25, and the Heat tanking the next two years would waste two seasons of their two best players primes.
Nevertheless, that may ultimately end up being the best path forward. The Heat haven't had two first-round picks in the same draft in years, and they have the framework of a big three in Herro, Adebayo, and Ware, with them having two chances to add to that core in this year's draft class.
If everything goes well, they could quickly reestablish themselves as contenders and weaken the picks that they would have to give up to the Thunder and Hornets, taking the sting out of losing the selections. Therefore, the Heat should actively tank rather than simply trying to win and failing.