Late-game execution becomes everything in the playoffs. Since 2000, 18 of 26 champions ranked top 5 in clutch winning percentage.
The eight teams that did not finish in the top-five had elite late game closers like Dwayne Wade, Tim Duncan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Stephen Curry.
This is the final part in a four-part series. Part one established which teams should be considered true contenders.
Part two looked at if the best players on those teams could lead a championship team, and part three looked at which of those teams were balanced enough to complete the ultimate goal. This final article will decide which NBA contender has the ability to close games in the final seconds.
Which NBA contenders can close out games?
This season, San Antonio, Detroit, and Oklahoma City rank in the top 5 in clutch winning percentage. Denver ranks 17th and Boston ranks 20th. However, these numbers are not everything.
Having your best player healthy is critical in clutch situations, as last-game possessions are often isolation opportunities for that player. With Jayson Tatum only playing four games this season, it is not fair to judge Boston based on their clutch statistics this year, when, come playoff time, Tatum will be the one isolating late in games.
Is it fair to judge them on last season, when Tatum was healthy? Not really. We do not know if Tatum will be healthy down the stretch, and the surrounding cast is much different than last season.
However, it should be noted that Boston had the best winning percentage in the league last year in games that went to the clutch. That isn’t nothing. Denver does not get the same treatment as Boston. Yes, Jokic missed 16 games earlier this season, but that is a far cry from the 62 games Tatum missed.
Also, despite Jokic being the best player in the world, Jamal Murray is most often handling the ball when the games get tight. Murray is the team’s best ball handler and perimeter option, and that player archetype tends to be favored in clutch situations. Murray has only missed 5 games this year.
Who passes the third test?
Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Detroit have proven that they perform well in clutch time this season.
Boston receives an incomplete grade due to Tatum’s absence, but their track record suggests they could still meet this standard.
Denver is the only team that clearly falls short. In the playoffs, where possessions slow down and execution becomes even more critical, that could become a defining weakness.
Which teams are true contenders?
Oklahoma City is the only team that checks every box. That should not come as a surprise. They have dominated all season and fit the championship blueprint as cleanly as any team in recent memory.
San Antonio and Detroit both check nearly every box. They are balanced teams, elite on at least one end of the floor, and have performed well in clutch situations.
Unfortunately, their top players come with questions. Neither Victor Wembanyama nor Cade Cunningham has proven they can lead a team through a championship run. However, here is a big difference between the two.
Wembanyama is a generational talent. If any young player were to break precedent and lead a team to a title this early in his career, it would be him. Cunningham is an excellent player, but it is harder to project that same level of ceiling at this stage.
Boston and Denver have more questions. The Eastern Conference may ultimately come down to Jayson Tatum’s right Achilles tendon.
If Tatum returns to his All-NBA level, Boston immediately re-enters the inner circle of contenders. They are a balanced team with a proven ability to execute in clutch situations when healthy. If he does not, their path becomes significantly more difficult. Given the nature of Achilles injuries, expecting a full return to form is a risky bet.
Denver is too reliant on one side of the ball. Their defense has struggled all season, and while they have proven they can overcome that in the past, it leaves them with very little margin for error. Their clutch performance is also concerning.
Oklahoma City stands alone at the top. San Antonio is the highest upside challenger. Detroit, Boston, and Denver all have paths, but each require breaking historical trends.
And if one team is going to do that? Keep an eye on Denver. They have the best player in the world, have already proven they can win a championship, and are getting healthy at the right time while not relying on an unprecedented injury recovery.