The season is almost over. While the cursed remaining fanbases sweat out the results of real basketball games, stress and dismay their constant companions, the rest of us can focus on what really matters: improving our team on paper for a chance to one day be so unlucky.
The draft is a highlight, for sure, but outside of the very top, rookies rarely come in and make a huge splash. Free agency ain’t what it used to be, but it’s still the quickest path to immediately improving a roster. Like Captain Ahab, all fans dream of landing a whale (or, in this year’s case, maybe a dolphin or two).
Of course, free agency isn’t all fun and games for the players and their agents. This is a fraught, contentious time. Players need to weigh factors such as contract lengths, raw dollars, taxes, on-court fit, family considerations, and more. And restricted free agency, which allows incumbent teams to match outside offers, remains a confounding variable artificially depressing player movement and value.
Below, I’ve looked at the top 10 players likely to be available this summer and analyzed their best- and worst-case landing spots. Worst case is relative – if a player lands there, it’s almost certainly because that team paid them the most! But this is a gradient, and some places are simply better fits than others.
I’ve tried to use some common sense in figuring out semi-realistic options for all of these players, and I’ve also had to exercise judgment on who is likely to be a real free agent in the first place – the Wizards didn’t trade for Trae Young to immediately let him walk, for example, and I highly doubt that Zach LaVine will turn down his $49 million player option.
I also try to be realistic about which teams have cap space – most of the league won’t have major spending power, so a disproportionate number of free agents will be hoping to get a bag from teams like the Chicago Bulls or Brooklyn Nets.
But we’re gonna have a little fun with it, too. Let’s start with the biggest name available.
LeBron James
Dream scenario: Cleveland Cavaliers
Nightmare scenario: Golden State Warriors
James is older than a handful of the league’s head coaches, yet he might somehow still be the best free agent likely to hit the market. Nobody in league history has done a better job charting their own path, but James’ end-of-season press conference portrayed a man still trying to come to grips with an uncertain future.
LeBron famously loves LA, and the Lakers made the second round of the playoffs without Luka Doncic. Staying with the incumbent is the likeliest outcome. But two other teams have consistently been linked to James and his camp.
The Golden State Warriors, led by Steph Curry and Draymond Green, have lusted after a partnership with James for years. People around the team think it’s plausible. But even with James, the Warriors are unlikely to resemble a Finals contender next year. Do we really need a whole season of bad-faith trolls shrilling, screaming about A) the Warriors as a superteam, which they wouldn’t be, or B) James as a backseat-riding ring chaser, which he isn’t? Hell no, we don’t. I’ve got the cold sweats thinking about it.
On the other hand, a third Cleveland stint would be sunset-on-the-beach beautiful. Sure, it would likely require a significant financial concession from James (as would Golden State), but only the hateriest haters wouldn’t want to see him return to a good Cavs team to try and get them over the playoff hump once more. While Bronny is under contract, perhaps James can get the Lakers to dump him for a second-round swap or something silly. Let’s make it a family event!
I don’t even hate the on-court fit. Evan Mobley’s defensive versatility means the Cavs could play small or huge around James, and his passing and ballhandling would ease the burden on Donovan Mitchell. James proved in the second half of this season that he’s come to terms with playing more off-ball, and he’s shown he still has an extra playoff gear.
No matter what he says now, we all know James is coming back for one more ride – somewhere. Given that James’ career predates half of NBA fans, it would be poetic for him to end his NBA tenure the way it began – in wine and gold.
Jalen Duren
Dream scenario: Los Angeles Lakers
Nightmare scenario: Detroit Pistons
I don’t have many restricted free agents on this list, since good RFAs almost never change teams. But Jalen Duren, who bet on himself before the season, will be a fascinating case.
Duren’s regular season couldn’t have gone better, as he nearly doubled his career scoring average, finished second in Most Improved Player voting, and has a chance to make an All-NBA team. But he’s been utterly disastrous in these playoffs, shrinking from the moment like a pupil encountering sunlight.
That reversal opens up some fascinating room for discussion. Having made All-NBA, Duren will undoubtedly demand $45 million per year or more (the 25% max starts at about $42 million; the 30% max, which he’d qualify for if he makes All-NBA, starts around $50 million!).
Would the Pistons be willing to give that? It’s so much money for a guy outplayed by Wendell Carter Jr. in the first round. More than half of the cap going to Cunningham and Duren could be crippling if Duren doesn’t significantly improve on both ends.
Duren’s fit with Cade Cunningham is one thing (smooth!), but Detroit is also high on Ausar Thompson, a non-shooter whose presence alongside Duren constrains the offense. The Pistons were outscored in the duo’s playoff minutes, which doesn’t bode well for two supposedly foundational pieces. Duren has improved defensively this season, but he’s not yet an anchor. His value mostly lies as a play-finisher in the pick-and-roll, where he’s exceptional. Is that worth the big bucks to Detroit? Perhaps, but the Pistons may well have to move on from Thompson if they go that route.
Regardless, a big offer might well be worth it to Los Angeles if LeBron James takes his talents elsewhere. It’s clear that Deandre Ayton will never be more than meh in the middle. A springy finisher like Duren is tailor-made to thrive next to Luka Doncic, and optimists could be higher on Duren’s defense than I am. Doncic lobs have fed families, and Duren’s could well be the next beneficiary.
Calling Detroit a nightmare scenario is obviously too harsh, and it’s still the most likely outcome. But there are already reports leaking that Detroit might lowball Duren. The fit in Motown isn’t as clean, and if the team decides to prioritize Ausar Thompson, they’ll be looking to squeeze every last dollar out of Duren – and eventually, perhaps, his minutes.
Austin Reaves
Dream Scenario: Los Angeles Lakers
Nightmare Scenario: Brooklyn Nets
Reaves stands to be a major winner of this summer’s bidding, but there’s nowhere that would fit him quite like home. If the Lakers can pony up the cash Reaves will demand, why would he go anywhere else?
Despite the presence of Luka Doncic and LeBron James, Reaves has been an absolutely dynamite scorer, and he was one of the league’s best offensive players before this season’s oblique injury. His craftiness and creativity, paired with a three-pointer that’s equally dangerous off the bounce as on the catch, make him virtually unguardable on the perimeter, given the attention Doncic draws.
Sure, there are concerns about the Doncic and Reaves pairing defensively, but it’s hard to find two top-tier offensive talents that fit so snugly together. If Reaves leaves, will the Lakers be better? It’s hard to imagine so.
Reaves also claims that he values winning. You know who isn’t likely to do a ton of winning next season? The Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets don’t control their own pick and will therefore be motivated to land some big fish this summer. But there’s very little proven NBA talent on the roster right now, and far more would-be ballhandlers than capable finishers. Outside of Michael Porter Jr. and Nic Claxton, there isn’t the right kind of supporting cast available to prop up Reaves at the moment. And almost every top player projected to be available to the Nets with the seventh pick in this year’s draft is a guard.
Personally, I think it would be exciting to see Reaves stretch his fantastic shotmaking to the limit as The Man on a middling team, like a basketball Reed Richards. If I were him, though, I’d ask my agent to work hard on keeping me home. There are far worse fates than being a 28-year-old making $40 million a year in The City of Angels.
Peyton Watson
Dream Scenario: Brooklyn Nets
Nightmare Scenario: Denver Nuggets
Odd though it sounds, Watson might not be best off in Denver. I’m reminded of the Jerami Grant situation from years ago, in which he left the Nuggets for a bigger offensive opportunity in Detroit. There are many parallels to that situation here.
For all the deserved hoopla around Watson’s breakout performance last season, there are reasons for some teams, including Denver, to pump the brakes. Watson showed off skills he never had before, but his best efforts largely came in the month that Nikola Jokic missed, thrusting a far bigger burden upon him than he’d ever had before. Watson admirably rose to the occasion, but it’s still a pretty small sample size to be gambling nine figures on, and his self-creation numbers were a little uneven.
Denver already misfired on Christian Braun, who had a no-good, bad-luck season from hell. That contract might well be untradable. Is Watson such an upgrade that it’s worth using real assets to clear out Braun or Cameron Johnson for him? Quite possibly, but it’s not the cut-and-dried decision it might appear.
If Denver’s shy, though, someone will take the gamble. I’d argue that, from Watson’s point of view, he’d be better off taking a bag from a place where there’s far more room to spread his wings, test the air currents.
Brooklyn, which missed out on a top pick, feels likely to draft yet another point guard. They have Watson’s former teammate, Michael Porter Jr., around to space the floor, and Nic Claxton is a decent-enough switchable rim protector. They have a perfectly Watson-sized hole in their roster. His ancillary rim protection and ability to defend quicker perimeter players, paired with his deadly corner shooting and burgeoning on-ball skills, present a tantalizing ceiling that a team like Brooklyn should absolutely chase.
Let the man fly.
Lu Dort
Dream Scenario: Los Angeles Clippers
Nightmare Scenario: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder love Lu Dort, and Lu Dort loves the Thunder. Oklahoma City has a team option on Dort, meaning that they can either pick it up and keep him, decline it (making Dort an unrestricted free agent), or trade him to another team.
As with Isaiah Hartenstein (more on him shortly), upcoming mega-extensions for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren could make Dort too expensive to keep. OKC is stocked on the wing. Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are perimeter defensive terrors, while Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain are cost-controlled offensive artillery who need more minutes.
Dort has not had his best year on either end, and while his contribution to Thunder culture is significant, the team may already be considering a diminished role for him in the near future. If the team decides not to pick up the option, Dort could cash out and join another strong team in need of his 3-and-D skills: The LA Clippers.
Clippers fans might need to swallow some bile, as Dort was memorably involved in injuries to James Harden and Paul George in the past, but he’d be a great fit next to Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. Going forward, Dort’s size and strength can cover up for some of Garland’s physical limitations, while Garland figures to get Dort plenty of open looks.
Even if he comes back cheap, Bennedict Mathurin is not the answer for LAC on the wing. And while the Clippers are likely to land a guard with their fifth pick in the draft, no one mocked at that range profiles as a multipositional bulldog defender. Kris Dunn is awesome, but Dunn doesn’t have Dort’s flexibility or three-point chops.
The Clippers have battled accusations of softness for a while now; nobody brings a harder edge than Dort.
Ayo Dosunmu
Dream scenario: Washington Wizards
Nightmare scenario: Chicago Bulls
Timing is everything.
Dosunmu was lost in the shuffle in Chicago, but a midseason trade to Minnesota revitalized his career – and his hopes for a big payday. Dropping 43 points in a must-win playoff game is a good way to raise your stock.
Dosunmu is a career 38% three-point shooter and strong on-ball defender whose best skill is jetting down the court in transition. Those three things make him an uber-desirable piece for any number of potential contenders, and perhaps even for some middling teams who want to see if he can do more if given a larger opportunity.
In fact, Dosunmu has played so well that he’ll likely be too expensive for most teams. The Wolves will need to tread the dark, spooky aprons to keep him, and the new-ish ownership group may not be excited to delve that deep for a fifth/sixth man.
If it isn’t Minnesota, only a few teams can offer more than the non-taxpayer MLE, which is expected to be around $15 million per year. A reunion with the Bulls feels unlikely, but it shouldn’t be entirely dismissed. Chicago has new management, a high draft pick, and a fresh outlook on life. They’ll have a ton of projected cap space and not too many top-tier free agents to overpay. And no one on the roster brings Dosunmu’s combination of strength, speed, shooting, and defense.
Still, Dosunmu isn’t quite enough of a bombs-away marksman to fit perfectly next to Josh Giddey or likely fourth-overall pick Caleb Wilson (who will need lots of space to maximize his gifts). And the Bulls are still crawling with skittery combo guards who need minutes, even if they aren’t as well-rounded as Dosunmu.
But what about the Washington Wizards? The Wizards have a fascinating young core (Kyshawn George, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, and soon one of Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, or Cameron Boozer) to go with win-now veteran stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis. A two-way guard with positional flexibility is the exact sort of gap-filler the Wizards need to make a real playoff push next season.
Dosunmu is a curious case. He’d be an asset on nearly every team, but only a handful can afford him, and he’s not quite the needle-mover that teams want with a $20-million-dollar player. Still, Washington feels like a spot where he could make a splash.
Isaiah Hartenstein
Dream Scenario: Oklahoma City Thunder
Nightmare Scenario: Anywhere else
I probably don’t need to frame things quite like that, since if Hartenstein does end up somewhere else, it’s because that team offered him oodles more money.
But it would be a bummer to have to leave the Thunder, who are one of the best teams in basketball and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. Hartenstein’s defensive presence, silky passing, and beef on the boards make him the perfect foil for cranky telephone pole Chet Holmgren.
Like Dort, Hartenstein technically has a hefty $28.5 million team option, which the Thunder (about to face tax issues for the first time in the SGA era) will almost certainly decline. They’ll try to give Hartenstein a longer-term contract for less money. But the big man is an advanced analytics darling, and there are sure to be some teams curious to see if the oft-injured 28-year-old big man can scale up his production with a bigger minutes load.
Hartenstein’s well-rounded skill set makes him a great fit anywhere. The Bulls desperately need a center, and they’ll have cash to throw around. It won’t be quite as easy to find the money for the Lakers if things go how I expect, but if a bigger-name player leaves, they might be thirsty for Hartenstein’s services, as well. The Clippers could have spending power and just traded their center to the Pacers; could an LA reunion be on the horizon?
A lot of projected cap space teams could use an iHart, and that means someone will have to back up the Brinks truck to secure his services. OKC is the best situation, but they’ll have to do some creative accounting to keep him.
Kristaps Porzingis
Dream Scenario: Wherever gives him more than a two-year deal
Nightmare Scenario: No one gives him more than a two-year deal
Porzingis is one of the oddest cases in recent free agent memory. He was unquestionably productive in the scant games he played this past season. His combination of deeeeeep three-point shooting and gimme-that-ish shotblocking makes him a fit on any team at any time. In a vacuum, everyone wants Porzingis.
But they don’t play ball in outer space. Down here, there is a ton of uncertainty swirling around the Unicorn, starting with his health. Whether it’s POTS or not, Porzingis has not been reliably able to suit up for a year now. Worse, there doesn’t seem to be any warning when he suddenly can’t play.
Any contending team would be happy to rent Porzingis on the cheap and gamble that his breathtaking talents will be available when they’re needed. This feels like it will be a classic winner’s curse situation, in which the team that “wins” his services will only do so because they value him more than anyone else. And if you’re that far from consensus, you’re usually wrong!
I’m not even sure Porzingis knows what’s going on with his body. Some would say he should take a one-year prove-it deal, but not me. More than almost anyone on this list, he should be location-agnostic and simply chase the longest contract for the most guaranteed money he can. Because if he proves he’s healthy and plays well? Some contender will be willing to trade for him. And if he doesn’t, well, that’s what the money is for.
Jonathan Kuminga
Best case: Atlanta Hawks
Worst case: Atlanta Hawks
How can one team be the best and worst case? It entirely depends on what they do with Kuminga’s team option.
Remember that it was, and I quote, “designed to be ripped up.” I’m not 100% sure that the paper will tear so easily.
Kuminga played solidly after the Warriors traded him to Atlanta, showcasing incremental improvements as a shooter and defender on a very small sample size. In typical Kuminga fashion, his highs were in the clouds. He put up 27/7/4 in his first game as a Hawk (which comes with a Wizards asterisk, to be fair) before dropping 40 points combined in Games 2 and 3 against the Knicks in the playoffs. He also posted strong on/off numbers in the regular season; the team was generally better with him playing than not.
But to some, it was still more of the same. Inconsistency is Kuminga’s calling card. Optimists will tell you he simply needs the time and ability to play through mistakes, and there could well be truth in that. Will Atlanta gamble on the upside?
Kuminga has publicly thirsted after long-term security. He will want a bag, and he’ll want it for several years. The Hawks do have the cap sheet for it. Would either side be amenable to something like three years, $60 million? I’d jump on that if I were Kuminga.
He might not be the cleanest fit next to Jalen Johnson, but Onyeka Okongwu’s stretchiness as a center makes life a lot easier. There could be room for Kuminga to flourish, particularly if the oft-injured Johnson were to miss time. And the Hawks are young, good, and improving. Kuminga fits the timeline and provides the high-end bench scoring and rim pressure Atlanta would need anyway if he leaves.
I’m quite sure Kuminga doesn’t want the option picked up. Sure, there are worse things than making nearly $25 million. But Kuminga then becomes a lame duck in a contract year, the exact sort of thing he wanted to avoid in Golden State. Last year proved that there isn’t a frothy trade market for him. If his option is picked up and he has a bad year, it could cost him tens of millions in the long run.
Norman Powell
Dream scenario: Detroit Pistons
Nightmare scenario: LA Clippers
Is Powell the least-desired freshly-named All-Star in recent memory?
You’d think a guy coming off his best season ever would be generating more offseason buzz, but you don’t hear too much about Powell. He did have a pretty dramatic second-half drop-off, he is 33, and he is small and a poor defender.
But Powell is also a legitimately dynamic scorer at every level. He provides the exact kind of floor-spacing for Detroit that Duncan Robinson does, but he’s also capable of putting the ball on the floor and getting a bucket at the rim. We saw in the playoffs how desperately the Pistons needed another shooter and another ballhandler; Powell can do both those things.
On the other hand, Powell has been linked to the Clippers. I don’t love Powell’s fit next to Darius Garland, given the similar sizes and defensive limitations. They seem likely to draft another guard. And remember, Powell’s production in Los Angeles – which sparkled when he was the main scorer next to James Harden – tumbled after Kawhi Leonard returned from injury.
Given the lack of cap space available and the increasing number of teams leery of defensively deficient small guards, particularly aging ones, I wonder if Powell will get stuck fielding a shockingly low offer – perhaps even the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (~$15 million per year). The incumbent Miami Heat might be his best chance to beat that.
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