Few teams have as much riding on one game as the Miami Heat do. The Heat can make the playoffs by beating the Atlanta Hawks to sneak in as the eighth seed and face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
However, they may be conflicted about doing so, considering the ramifications that making the playoffs has. Due to unique pick protections, they find themselves in a precarious situation.
If the Heat were to win their play-in game against the Hawks, they would lose their first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. They would also lose their 2027 or 2028 firsts to the Charlotte Hornets as a result of the Terry Rozier trade.
That would take some of the luster out of them making the playoffs, but missing it would be almost as bad. Should they lose to the Atlanta Hawks, they would retain their current projected 12th pick in this year's draft.
However, they would lose their pick next year to the Oklahoma City Thunder and an unprotected first to the Hornets in 2028. Being without a first-round pick in two of the next three drafts would be brutal, though it would allow the Heat to add a top 12 prospect to their team while also having another first-round pick.
Draft pick implications: Miami Heat
โ Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) April 16, 2025
If they reach the first round
๐ 2025 1st to OKC
๐ 2027 top-14 protected 1st to Charlotte (unprotected in 2028 if not conveyed)
If they lose in the play-in
๐ They retain their 2025 first
๐ 2026 unprotected 1st to OKC
๐ 2028 unprotectedโฆ
The Miami Heat find themselves in a no-win scenario ahead of a must-win game.
Fortunately for the Heat, they have the Golden State Warriors' pick thanks to the Jimmy Butler trade, ensuring that they will get a selection in this year's draft. Considering all of the antics that he pulled this season, getting a key asset back takes some of the sting out of moving Butler.
If the Heat lose the play-in, then they could add a lottery pick and another pick in the early twenties. That would help boost their current roster. It might not help them in the long run, but with them having stars Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro in their primes, worrying about the long term might make them worse now.
The Heat will assuredly try to win against the Hawks and deal with the fallout later. Whatever outcome that may be.
Ultimately, the Heat's game against the Hawks will have major ramifications whether they win or lose. Ironically, losing the play-in game may be for the best for them in the short term, while making the playoffs may be better in the long run.