No. 4: Miami Heat do it again
Zo. Shaq. LeBron. Bosh. Butler.
Giannis?
The Miami Heat have been aggressive pursuing stars for decades, and that aggression has come through for them multiple times. They won the NBA Finals with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal, went to four-straight after courting LeBron James and Chris Bosh (winning two) and went back to two more Finals with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Their recent past is littered with attempts to trade for big-name stars, including a near-miss at trading for Damian Lillard last year. Now, Lillard's inability to elevate the Milwaukee Bucks alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo could lead to the Heat stepping up to trade for a two-way superstar.
That only happens if they can put together the right package to offer to the Bucks, however, and that is where things get exceptionally difficult. The Miami Heat are over the first luxury tax apron, which means they cannot take back more salary than they send out. With the Bucks in the same boat, a third team absolutely has to be involved.
Now for the second problem: matching salary. Tyler Herro is a lock to be included in a deal (unless the Heat want to put together a trade involving Jimmy Butler, but we'll avoid that dark tunnel for now). Herro, making $29 million, leaves the Heat $19 million shy of Antetokounmpo's salary. That could be eaten up with Duncan Robinson, but the Heat do not have a deep enough war chest of draft picks to put together a realistic offer of Herro, Robinson and picks.
They do have some intriguing young players they can include, with Nikola Jovic taking another step forward in his third season, Jaime Jaquez Jr. being a draft-day steal a year ago, and Kel'el Ware playing extremely well in Summer League and the preseason. Even rookie second-rounder Pelle Larsson has leaped into the rotation. There is young talent to be offered here.
Stacking any number of those young players, however, makes the salary too large for Milwaukee to take back, yet they don't make enough to build their way to enough matching salary if Robinson is pulled out. So now comes the difficult part.
The Heat need to construct a trade where they can trade Tyler Herro, some of their young players and draft capital to the Bucks while moving Duncan Robinson to another team that can essentially send back multiple players, one mid-sized salary back to the Heat and one routed to the Bucks.
Perhaps the Memphis Grizzlies would answer that call. Duncan Robinson is not the same level of sniper as Luke Kennard, but he is both bigger and healthier. The Grizzlies also have the contract of John Konchar to pass along to the Bucks to make the salaries balance out.
Here is what that deal would look like all together:
The Grizzlies pick up a swap and a second-round pick to take on Duncan Robinson's money for 2025-26, but he is a player who could fit into their rotation so it's not like that's terrible money.
The Heat get their superstar in Antetokounmpo, and have an uber-talented but ill-fitting group of players in Giannis, Butler and Adebayo to build around. Terry Rozier remains to start in the backcourt, likely alongside rookie Pelle Larsson. Haywood Highsmith, Alec Burks and Josh Richardson would be the perimeter rotation behind them, with Luke Kennard added in as much-needed shooting.
Is that a group that contend for a title? They may need another offseason to truly build out around the three stars, but the talent level is high and the defense would likely be incredible. It's quintessential Miami Heat basketball -- add the talent, play harder than everyone else and trust Erik Spoelstra to figure the rest out.
In Milwaukee, the Bucks don't get an overwhelming return of draft picks but they do immediately start over with an intriguing young core. Tyler Herro's stock has fallen a bit but he remains a talented scorer. Nikola Jovic has taken a step forward as a two-way player, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is shooting the leather off the basketball to start the season. Kel'el Ware is a good bet to be their center of the future.
Ultimately it seems likely that the Bucks get a better offer than this, either one overflowing with draft picks or with a real blue-chip prospect involved. The financial savings for this deal are significant, however, and the Bucks would need to strongly consider it if the Heat managed to pull it all together to make the offer.