Proof that making All-Summer League first team leads to NBA success

The Cleveland Cavs are the 2023 Summer League champions, and looking at the Summer League championship rings, it was definitely worth it for the young players trying to make their mark. This begs the question, how much does summer league success actually matter? From a team focus, due to the quick roster-building, strange mishmash of players, lack of chemistry, and overall hero-ball and inexperience displayed on the court, winning Summer League is fun, but not important.

On an individual player level, performing well at summer league or struggling at summer league should also always be taken with a grain of salt. With that being said, the historical data does suggest that making the All-Summer League First Team does translate to success in the NBA. This year, the following players made the 2023 All-Summer League First Team:

• Keyonte George (1st round, 16th overall pick in 2023)
• Sam Merrill (2nd round, 60th overall pick in 2020)
• Orlando Robinson (Undrafted in 2022)
• Hunter Tyson (2nd round, 37th overall pick in 2023)
• Cam Whitmore (1st round, 20th overall pick in 2023)

As for the historical data component, looking specifically at the All-Summer League First Teams from 2015-2019 shows some promising trends. The 2019 Summer League is a great cut-off so that we can properly evaluate only players who have at least 4 seasons of NBA exposure. Of the 25 players who made All-Summer League First Team, we broke down the players who won the award into four NBA categories; capable starters, rotational players, end-of-the-bench/emergency players, and players who are already out of the NBA. These were our results:

Capable starters – 12 players (48%):

Mitchell Robinson (2019, 2nd round pick), Jarrett Allen (2019), Josh Hart (2018), Collin Sexton (2018), Wendell Carter Jr. (2018), John Collins (2017), Lonzo Ball (2017), Tyus Jones (2016), Ben Simmons (2016), T.J. Warren (2015), Norman Powell (2015, 2nd round pick), Kyle Anderson (2015)

Rotational players – 6 players (24%):

Brandon Clarke (2019), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (2019), Christian Wood (2018, undrafted), Bobby Portis (2016), Seth Curry (2015, undrafted), Doug McDermott (2015)

End of the bench/emergency players – 3 players (12%):

Kendrick Nunn (2019, undrafted), Kevin Knox (2018), Dennis Smith Jr. (2017)

Out of the NBA – 4 players (16%):

Caleb Swanigan (2017), Josh Jackson (2017), Alan Williams (2016, undrafted), Jordan McRae (2016, 2nd round pick)

What do these statistics mean for the 2023 All-Summer League First Team players?

Based on recent historical percentages, if a player makes the All-Summer League First Team, they have a 72% chance of becoming a rotational player in the NBA or better. This also often means that they are players who stick around for a second or even third contract in the NBA (which is definitely easier said than done). On the flip side, you’ll notice an apparent ceiling on all of these players; of the 25 players, only one (Ben Simmons) has ever been an All-Star.

Regardless, the data does indicate that it is not just high-draft picks that made the All-Summer League First Team into solid NBA players. Undrafted players like Christian Wood and Seth Curry have stuck around quite well in the NBA as rotation players. Additionally, 2nd-round draft picks like Mitchell Robinson and Norman Powell have even become quality starters as their careers progressed.

Fast-forwarding to this Summer League, the data suggests that of the five players selected to the All-Summer League First Team, two should become capable starters, one should become a rotational player, one should slide in as an end-of-the-bench or emergency player, and one will likely end up out of the NBA in the next few seasons. This is obviously not an exact science, but the most logical predictions for this breakdown would be:

Capable starters:

Keyonte George

Cam Whitmore

Rotational player:

Hunter Tyson

End of the bench/emergency player:

Orlando Robinson

Out of the NBA soon:

Sam Merrill

The coolest thing about this batch of All-Summer League First Team players is that there is not a single lottery pick among them. George and Whitmore were selected 16th and 20th overall, Tyson was drafted 37th, Merrill was drafted 60th in 2020, and Robinson was undrafted in 2022.

The 2019 All-Summer League First Team is the only other team in the last decade that also did not feature a lottery pick. Their journeys are just getting started, but this is a great step in the right direction for all five of these young players.