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Which Texas-based NBA franchise will win another title the soonest?

By Tyler Key

HOUSTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 02: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Tari Eason #17 of the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center on January 02, 2023 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 02: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Tari Eason #17 of the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center on January 02, 2023 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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Texas has a rich history of NBA championships

Following the Denver Nuggets’ championship this past season, there was much discussion made about how they were the first western conference team outside of the state of Texas and California to win the title since 1979 (Seattle SuperSonics). Since that Seattle championship, Texas-NBA franchises have accounted for eight titles:

  • San Antonio Spurs (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014)
  • Houston Rockets (1994, 1995)
  • Dallas Mavericks (2011)

While all three of these Texas-NBA franchises found themselves outside of the play-in this past season, they are each poised to have very productive off-seasons. With San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas all theoretically on the rise, which team is set up the best long-term to truly contend for and win a title before the others?

San Antonio Spurs: adding a generational talent to a youthful roster

The San Antonio Spurs drafted 7’4” french phenom, Victor Wembanyama, whose ceiling is about as high as any player entering the league since LeBron James. The 19-year-old is already the prohibitive favorite to win the 2024 Rookie of the Year award (-225 odds) and he has a chance to be the first rookie to be an all-star since Blake Griffin in 2011. The Spurs front office was also wise in drafting fellow Frenchman, Sidy Cissoko, with the 44th pick this season to make Wemby feel more comfortable transitioning to the NBA lifestyle.

As for the rest of the roster, San Antonio has several promising pieces such as Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, and Devin Vassel. Additionally, this historically great front office has a good chunk of cap space to still use to round out the roster. Gregg Popovich is also still there and for the first time since 2018-2019, will be coaching meaningful basketball games. Pop could very well put the league on notice that this Spurs rebuild is coming on faster than expected.

Houston Rockets: new coach, young talent, and financial ability

Houston drafted Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, both of which were considered as top 10 talents, to add to their incredibly intriguing young roster. The Rockets bring in a finals-caliber coach in Ime Udoka, who helped elevate the Celtics team in 2021-2022, leading them to their first finals appearance since 2010. He now gets to work with the likes of Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr, and Tari Eason, among others in addition to the 2023 draft picks.

Houston is another team with tons of cap space entering free agency and can likely bring in a couple of veterans on bigger contracts. These veterans can help be tone-setters for Ime Udoka and this young Rockets team and perhaps we can finally see a jump from Jalen Green.

Dallas Mavericks: building around a young superstar

The Mavericks have Luka Doncic. He will be entering his 5th season in the NBA at age 24 and has already been an All-NBA player four times and in the MVP-mix throughout his young career. He is the epitome of a guy you want on your roster if you are trying to win a championship and the Mavs have already made a conference finals with him.

The supporting cast around Luka is currently lacking, however they were able to nab two nice rookies in Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper in the 2023 NBA draft. Kyrie Irving is also still in the back-end of his prime at age 31. The Mavs probably only have another couple of seasons before Irving begins to truly regress but the 6’2” guard is currently still a top 25 player in the NBA. With their current window and the upside of Luka, Dallas has a great opportunity to have some deep playoff runs if a couple of their rookies/smaller free agent signings pan out.

The correct answer? The Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio and Houston are both incredibly intriguing and will definitely be in the playoff mix in a few seasons. However, you need experience to win a title in the NBA. Even if Wembanyama has the chance to be the next Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in time, Kareem was 22 when he was drafted into the NBA and won his first title at age 24. This title was also achieved while playing with the great Oscar Robertson who was in his early 30s and is one of the best 20 players in NBA history.

The Rockets have a similar problem, but have less certainty of even having a future All-NBA player on their roster. With so many young prospects, it is hard to optimize player growth for everyone and it is likely that while one or two of them will thrive, the others may suffer. In the last three seasons, they also have the worst record in the NBA at 59-177, so they will first need to work on simply building a winning culture before thinking about a championship.

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Meanwhile, the Mavericks have a current top 10 (dare I say 5) player in the NBA who is entering his prime. Doncic recently saw two international superstars win championships in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic. Giannis won his title at age 26 and Jokic just won his title at age 28. As long as the Mavs can keep some semblance of depth and talent around Luka Doncic, he has the tools and the timeline to bring Dallas another championship in the next three-four seasons.