Ranking the 5 riskiest boom-or-bust prospects in the 2023 NBA draft

Risky Boom-or-Bust Prospect #1: Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite

If the idea of boom-or-bust was to be distilled into a single prospect, they’d probably look a lot like Amen Thompson. There are two futures for Thompson, with sparingly little room for an in-between of how his career can go. Either Thompson will blossom and become a star talent in the NBA or his flaws will be too severe to overcome and he’ll flame out of the league.

Let’s focus on the good first. Thompson, just like his brother, is a generational athlete who has an elite first step and vertical. He makes mind-melting athletic plays that few other players, if any, can make. On top of that, Thompson is a fantastic passer, who can hit any window with the right pass at any speed:

The rougher areas of Thompson’s game are potentially disastrous, however. Thompson needs to be a lead ball-handler in an offense, as he’s not a good enough shooter to be a wing. He’s not a shooter at all yet, despite doing his best to improve that aspect of his game. He’s also worse than his brother at defending the perimeter, which pigeonholes his role at the next level more.

Either a team will give Thompson the keys to their offense and watch him turn into a star talent at the next level or he will play out of position, stagnate as a player, and crash out of the NBA in a few years. With such a narrow path to success but such a high ceiling, Thompson is clearly the riskiest yet best boom-or-bust prospect in this year’s draft class.