Analyzing Cam Johnson’s value in restricted free agency
Despite being limited to only eight games to start the season, Cam Johnson projects to be one of the top Free Agents this summer. The young(ish) forward had assumed Jae Crowder’s starting spot in the Phoenix Suns’ rotation to begin the 2022-23 season before his meniscus injury sidelined him in early November. However, with or without the injury, the fact remains that sharpshooting wings are always a hot commodity on the NBA market.
Several teams in need of such a wing are projected to have major cap room open in the offseason. Now that Johnson is back on the court for a team struggling to maintain a playoff spot, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to continue increasing his value as we approach the All-Star break.
Alright, so how’d we get here? Back in October, Johnson and the Suns tried and ultimately failed to reach an agreement on a Rookie Scale Extension before the start of the regular season, assuring that the 26-year-old will reach Restricted Free Agency in late June. For the Suns, all this means is that Johnson might be able to drive up his value a little bit by bringing back an Offer Sheet or at least a verbal offer from the open market.
The Suns have the right to match any Offer Sheet which would keep Johnson in a Suns uniform for the duration of the contract. With how poorly last offseason’s negotiations went with Deandre Ayton, ultimately forcing the Suns to match the biggest Offer Sheet in NBA history, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Johnson and Phoenix’s front office don’t reach an agreement themselves.
Okay, so we know Johnson is most likely staying with Phoenix one way or another. Where’s his value going to land? Let’s try to find an estimate. Last season, Johnson averaged 12.5 PPG while posting a 42.5 3P%, easily the highest of his career at the time, on 391 total three-point attempts. So far this season, Johnson is shooting 46.3% from three, though only on 82 total attempts. For context, the league leader in three-point attempts this season is currently Buddy Hield with 459. Hield is shooting 42.7% from three on that mark.
Among players putting up at least 82 three-point attempts this season, Johnson ranks 5th in 3P%.
In 2021-22, only two players shot at least as many threes as Johnson with a higher percentage: Luke Kennard (44.9%) and Desmond Bane (43.6%). Bane is still on his rookie contract, and Kennard operates more as a 2-guard while Johnson primarily plays at the 4. Therefore, we can’t really use those guys as good comparisons. Instead, we can look at a player like Lauri Markkanen, who went through his Restricted Free Agency back in 2021.
Remember that Markkanen was not the player then that he is now. Even still, in the 2020-21 season, he shot a then-career high 40.2% from three on just under 300 attempts, resulting in 13.6 PPG. Kind of similar right? Even though his new contract wasn’t actually agreed to until three weeks into Free Agency, most likely lowering the value, Markkanen was able to snag a four-year, $67.47 million deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers based on those statistics, broken down as follows:
Y1 (2021-22): $15,690,909
Y2 (2022-23): $16,475,454
Y3 (2023-24): $17,259,999
Y4 (2024-25): $18,044,544
The last year of Markkanen’s deal is partially guaranteed for $6 million, but we’ll set that aside for the purposes of this analysis. Okay, so where do we go from here? In the first season of that deal, the Salary Cap was set at $112,414,000. Therefore, Markkanen’s $15.7 million salary represented 13.96% of the Cavaliers’ cap in that season.
The first year of Johnson’s new contract will start next season, which currently projects to have a $134,000,000 Salary Cap. What’s 13.96% of $134 million? $18,703,914. Next, let’s factor in raises. Because Markkanen signed his contract as a sign-and-trade, his raises were limited to 5% of his first year salary (FYS). If Johnson re-signs with the Suns, he’ll be allowed to agree to up to 8% raises. Let’s lay out the deal:
Y1 (2023-24): $18,703,914
Y2 (2024-25): $20,200,227
Y3 (2025-26): $21,696,540
Y4 (2026-27): $23,192,854
Therefore, Markkanen’s equivalent contract for Johnson, if signed this summer with the Suns, is a four-year, $83.79 million deal. That gives Johnson an average annual value (AAV) of $20.95 million. Adjusting the contracts of other (roughly) comparable players like Duncan Robinson, Mikal Bridges, Davis Bertans, etc., Johnson’s expected AAV appears to climb well above $20 million.
An AAV of $20.95 million would make Johnson the fifth-highest paid player on the Suns roster.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is a crash course on cap inflation’s effect on player valuation. Before everyone goes crazy, no, that may not be where Johnson’s value ultimately lands. First, 3P% is only part of the puzzle. Second, there are many other factors that teams and agents take into account when coming to an agreement: age, improvement arcs, statistical trajectories, potential signing threats, competitors on the market, agent relations, the upcoming new NBA media rights deal, the new collective bargaining agreement, and much more.
Next. Are the Suns looking for their Paul replacement?. dark
Looking at the 2023 Free Agent market, Johnson easily stands out as a top choice for teams needing wing depth. Obviously, we still need to see how he finishes the season, but, going into a summer loaded with cap room and hunger for wings, it’s looking more than likely that Cam Johnson sees a contract with an AAV in the $20-25 million range at a minimum.