Is Kyle Lowry to blame for the Miami Heat’s fall from title contention?

Any time a team makes a precipitous drop in the standings, it’s worth digging in to figure out what’s caused the sudden fall. After snatching the 1st seed in the Eastern Conference and dragging the Boston Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, Kyle Lowry and the Miami Heat have taken a noticeable step back from the list of NBA title contenders.

That’s a problem for a team that’s pushed their chips into the center of the table to try to win a title in their current window. Jimmy Butler has played like a shoo-in All-Star, but he’s already missed 15 games this year and he isn’t getting any younger and sprier. That makes the team’s fall that much more crucial to fix.

Miami isn’t necessarily broken, as they have the 6th-best Defensive Rating in the NBA and average the 5th-fewest turnovers per game. They neither beat themselves nor let teams beat them easily. Instead, it’s essential to find out what led to last year’s 12th-ranked offensive rating cratering down to 27th-best this year.

With blame shifting around, many fingers have started to point toward Kyle Lowry. As an aging star making the third most money on the team, he has been blamed for Miami’s reversal. But how much of that blame is deserved?

Which of the Heat’s problems are due to Kyle Lowry?

It’s not a stretch to say that this hasn’t been one of Lowry’s banner seasons. Gone are the days of the burly drives into the lane, the clutch three-pointers, and the sturdy defense that helped define the last decade of the Toronto Raptors.

As he’s lost his athletic advantages, Lowry has transitioned to a more supplemental role for Miami. He takes only the 6th-most shots for the Heat, and it’s not because there are five better offensive players than him.

Lowry is averaging his worst three-point percentage since he was 23 years old, his third-lowest free-throw rate of his career, and his fifth-lowest assist rate. With his dwindling abilities to hit threes and get easy points at the line, the usual driving scores, pull-up jumpers, and smart passes are becoming less frequent. It’s a “vintage” performance now for Lowry to do something like he used to with ease for the Raptors:

https://twitter.com/ClutchPointsApp/status/1617294062712942592

There are also some issues with Lowry on the defensive end. In fact, the Heat are almost two points better on defense without Kyle Lowry on the floor. Although he always lacked positional size and athleticism, Lowry’s core strength helped make him a competent defensive player.

With less impact on that end and an even more hindering presence on offense, it’s hard to view Lowry as a game-changer for the Heat anymore. That’s a problem due to both the money he commands and the proposed role he was supposed to play for the team.

Which of the Heat’s problems have nothing to do with Kyle Lowry?

A silver lining (at least for Lowry) is that there are several reasons why Miami has fallen out of the upper crust in the Eastern Conference. Although he’s part of the problem, he’s certainly not the only thing that has held the Heat back this year.

Although every team deals with it, the injury bug has been particularly brutal for the Heat this year. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Gabe Vincent have all missed valuable time, hurting the continuity of the team, and other small nicks and bruises have ultimately added up to a rocky season health-wise for the Heat.

Any team that wants to win an NBA championship in the modern era needs to have a modern offense. Miami’s is a far cry from that, ranking as one of the worst in the league. They’re only 28th in pace and 5th in turnovers, which on the surface seems like it would result in a patient, methodical offense.

What keeps it from being successful is the nightmare shooting performance the team has had as a whole. They rank 26th in effective field goal percentage despite taking the 8th most threes per game. The nail in the Heat’s coffin is the almost unbelievable stat that no Heat player is shooting better than 38% from deep, a hurdle that often grinds the Heat’s offense to a crawl:

Looking at each of the percentages for Miami’s supposed marksmen is hard to do without wincing: Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson are averaging their second-worst percentages from deep, while both Max Strus and Victor Oladipo are having their worst seasons ever from three.

Combined with Lowry’s aforementioned struggles from beyond the arc, alongside Jimmy Butler’s drop-off in three-point attempts, you’ve got a recipe for a disastrous offensive reality: a slow, plodding scheme that’s focused on getting good shots, only for those shots to repeatedly hit back iron and tank the team’s chances.

What’s the consensus on Lowry’s impact on the Heat?

With how poorly the Heat have played by their standards, it’s no surprise that many different players have come into the firing line by fans and pundits alike. Lowry’s drop-off in some crucial areas has made him an easier target, but it’s not that simple.

Despite Lowry’s regression, the bigger issue is that outside of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, the Heat have no positive offensive players. Their roster construction valued nimble shooters from deep, but none of their acquisitions have held up their end of the bargain.

That’s resulted in a sooner-than-expected end to the Heat’s contention. While it isn’t Kyle Lowry’s fault, it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he becomes part of the solution in one form or another. No one wants to win more than Pat Riley and unless Lowry turns his season around a bit, he could find himself as a salary filler in the next move to get Miami a coveted star player.