Race for Wembanyama: Where each team ranks halfway into the season

The “I’m just happy to be nominated” tier.

Orlando Magic-10.5%

San Antonio Spurs-12.5%

Detroit Pistons-14.0%

Charlotte Hornets-14.0%

Houston Rockets-14.0%

Orlando Magic

While the Orlando Magic might not be particularly good at the moment, they are always fascinating to watch thanks to their freakishly tall and versatile team. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck between being good enough to avoid being a bottom-three team and bad enough to likely miss the play-in tournament.

It’s a tough spot to be in since they’ll only have a 10.5% chance of landing the first pick in this year’s draft. Then again, this team has already won the NBA draft lottery three times, including last year. If everything goes right for the Magic, they’ll win the draft lottery again and be able to pair Wembanyama with franchise star Bol Bol, er, Paolo Banchero.

San Antonio Spurs

Of the teams in the bottom five, the Spurs are perhaps the most intriguing. After winning just 35 games last season, they opted to trade away their best player for draft picks, presumably in the hopes of bottoming out.

While they do have the fourth-worst record in the NBA, they have looked competent when fully healthy. In fact, they started the season 5-2 before losing 11 straight games thanks to injuries to several rotation players. The Spurs are mostly healthy now, minus their best player, Devin Vassell, who is out indefinitely, but they are still a cut above the three worst teams in the NBA at the moment.

That should be a good thing, but it’s the difference between a 12.5% chance at Wembanyama and a 14% chance. That probably won’t matter much, but when talking about potentially landing a franchise-changing player, every bit helps.

Actually, the Spurs could look to trade Jakob Poeltl, Doug McDermott, and Josh Richardson, each of whom is key to their team, partly in the hopes of worsening their roster and improving their lottery odds. Even if they don’t move all three, there is still a chance that they catch up with the Pistons, who currently have a worse record by virtue of having played three more games thus far.

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons were many NBA fans’ picks to be the most surprising team this season after a terrific summer. They drafted Jaden Ivey, acquired Jalen Duren, and traded for Bojan Bogdanovic, all of which were great moves. When factoring in the presence of 2021 first-overall pick Cade Cunningham, the Pistons appeared to be a legitimate play-in tournament team.

Instead, they have the third-worst record in the NBA and are seeking to shed some of their veteran players to get even worse. Why not, right? If you are going to underperform, this is the season to do so, and there has at least been some player development with the likes of Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart.

Assuming they move on from some of their key players at the trade deadline, the Pistons could have another terrific offseason if they win the NBA draft lottery.

Charlotte Hornets

Another surprise inclusion in the bottom five is the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have had terrible luck dating back to the offseason, when their leading scorer from last season, Miles Bridges, got himself into legal trouble.

He hasn’t played this season, and All-Star guard LaMelo Ball has already missed 30 games thus far, both contributing to the Hornets’ horrid start. Even with those players, they were only a slightly above-average team, so it makes sense that they’d be one of the worst teams in the NBA without them.

The obvious silver lining to that is that they currently are tied for the highest odds of landing the number one pick, and they are in desperate need of a talent infusion.

Houston Rockets

For all the young talent on the Rockets, they find themselves with the worst record in the NBA. This is despite having six first-round picks in the last two drafts, including Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, who were both top-three picks.

This team is still trying to figure out which of its pieces are keepers, and that’s led them to be frustratingly inconsistent. That at least gives them a chance to select a true superstar in Wembanyama, and selecting him would take pressure off Green and Smith and give the Rockets one of the best young trios in the NBA.