NBA: F Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards
At the time of Kyle Kuzma’s three-year extension with the Los Angeles Lakers in December 2020, fans were slowly starting to lose interest in the former first-round pick. Despite the Lakers coming off an NBA championship at the time, Kuzma’s role had been reduced to that of a sixth man, bringing down his stats and apparent value along the way.
Two years later, Kuzma finds himself on the Washington Wizards, a team that, ironically, is looking at the play-in tournament from the outside, like this year’s Lakers. While the team does have at least a respectable roster, at 12th place in the Eastern Conference, the franchise is once again at a crossroads where it must decide how to construct the roster going forward. Kyle Kuzma’s future with the team will be a critical part of that analysis.
Following Kuzma’s trade to the Wizards in the Russell Westbrook deal, head coach Wes Unseld wasted no time inserting the Michigan native back into the starting lineup. The effects were instantaneous. Kuzma’s scoring figures reverted back to their original levels and beyond. This season, Kuzma is scoring a career-best 21.8 points per game on 56.1 TS%, also the best mark of his career.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Kuzma has an efficiency differential of +5.5, easily the highest he’s ever produced, putting him in the top 24th percentile in the league. While he has yet to find a consistent three-point shot, Kuzma has proven time and time again to be a viable third or fourth-scoring option on not only a competitive team but a championship-winning one.
Shams says the Suns expressed interest in John Collins, Harrison Barnes, Kyle Kuzma and KJ Martin. IMO Kuzma would be the ideal return as a bucker-getter in their frontcourt. Would give a ton of lineup flexibility. https://t.co/HjCJx1OIE0
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) November 18, 2022
Unlike the rest of the players on this list, Kuzma’s contractual situation is completely in his control. The 27-year-old is in the second season of his three-year extension with a $13 million player option for 2023-24. If Kuzma maintains his current level of play, it is highly unlikely that he even considers picking the option. Technically, Kuzma could decline the $13 million player option and immediately sign a four-year, $69.9 million extension with the Wizards, keeping him in the nation’s capital until 2027, but even that’s foolish.
While the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement limits Kuzma’s extension to the value laid out above (something I can break down another time), Kuzma can sign a contract as a free agent (subscription required) this summer with a first-year salary of up to 25% of the salary cap. Let’s do some quick math. What is 25% of the projected $134 million 2023-24 salary cap? $33.5 million. That’s just in the first year. Don’t forget the 8% raises that factor into the other years on the deal.
To be clear, Kuzma is almost certainly not getting that max contract in the offseason. However, the point remains that there is much, much more money out there for him on the open market.
While the 2023 free agent class could include some big names at the forward position like Khris Middleton, Draymond Green, and Jerami Grant, Kuzma is younger and likely more affordable, making him a top candidate to get a big contract this summer.