One striking stat proves that we’re living in the NBA’s offensive renaissance

What a time to be a fan of the NBA, particularly if you enjoy scoring. It’s no secret that the NBA is experiencing a scoring boom, the likes of which we’ve never really seen before, but there is a stat that confirms what we’re all witnessing. With every team playing at least 20 games, we’re at the quarter-way point of the season, which is enough time for trends to form and weird statistical abnormalities to resolve themselves.

One thing that isn’t a weird statistical abnormality is Luka Doncic leading the NBA in scoring with 33.5 points per game. However, what is unusual is the number of players who are also averaging at least 30 points per game.

Before this season, very few NBA players averaged 30 points per game.

In the NBA’s first 75 seasons, only 33 players averaged at least 30 points per game in a single season. This season is clearly different, with six players currently averaging at least 30 points per game. If that holds, then several players would be joining that ultra-exclusive club. But what’s driving this sudden scoring explosion from these top players?

There are a few reasons that could explain what’s happening. One is that teams are playing faster than they did in the 1990s and 2000s, giving top players more opportunities to score. There are also rule changes such as hand-checking, which makes it much easier for players to get open, resulting in less energy loss from game to game, as well as limiting back-to-back games and four games in five nights, helping keep players fresher for longer. Less fatigue, in theory, means that top players are playing at the top of their games with fewer dips in offensive output.

Those are my theories, at least, and are anecdotally supported by the fact that we didn’t see this type of offensive explosion in the 1950s–1980s, despite some elite scorers. There were obviously the likes of Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, and Michael Jordan, but they often finished well ahead of the competition when it came to scoring.

Meanwhile, Doncic is dropping 33.4 points per game and only averaging two points more than Stephen Curry. That’s outlandish. Of course, players such as Doncic and Curry are scoring differently than elite perimeter players from previous decades.

The evolution of the game has led to increased scoring by its top players.

Players now take far more threes than ever before, and the league’s top scorers are no exception. In fact, five of the top 10 scorers are attempting at least seven threes per game, and shooting a high percentage on a high volume of threes provides them with a distinct advantage since it is far more efficient than relying solely on two-pointers.

Getting so many shots off while being the focal point of the opposing defense requires incredible skill, which previous generations of NBA players lacked. This is because the three-point line either wasn’t invented or was seen as more of a novelty. It’s properly valued now, and it’s completely changed how offense is played since teams generally have at least four shooters on the floor at all times.

This increases spacing and makes it more difficult for defenses to stop an elite offensive player or even send double-teams their way. As a result, players are shooting much better inside the arc too, with the league averaging 53.3% on two-point field goals. Compare this to the 1950s and 1960s, when the likes of Bob Petit, who averaged 31.4 points per game in 1961–62, Bob Cousy, and Bill Russell shot 43%, 37%, and 44% for their careers, respectively.

It ultimately comes down to efficiency. While free throws are way down across the NBA, both field goal and three-point percentages have steadily risen, and that’s been aided by changes to the rules, schedule, and style of play.

That’s led to a dramatic increase in scoring, with more players averaging 30 points per game this season. Still, it takes a rare talent to accomplish that, and the NBA seems to have plenty of them at the moment.