Adam Siver’s tough talk against tanking won’t scare desperate NBA teams

In recent years, the concept of tanking has become much more accepted as a strategy for rebuilding NBA teams. While still controversial, the incentive to do so can be hard to pass up. Being bad enough to land a top pick and having a chance at selecting a future star is the easiest way for a team to land top talent. This is particularly true for bad teams, which have virtually no chance of signing star players as free agents.

Despite that, commissioner Adam Silver appears to be taking a hard line against tanking, especially this season. After all, being among the four worst teams in the NBA gives each team about a one-in-four chance of selecting either Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson.

Wembanyama and Henderson are projected to be the top two picks in the 2023 NBA draft and are seemingly surefire future superstars. No wonder teams are tempted to tank, and, try as Silver might, he can only do so much to prevent it.

Relegation is an option for the NBA, but not a realistic one.

One option the NBA has considered to try and curb tanking is relegation. The idea of relegation, or demoting underperforming NBA teams down to the NBA G League, is an interesting thought.

However, it’s just unrealistic. How would it even work? The whole point of bad teams getting top picks is for them to rebuild through the draft and improve. That can take time and would likely mean a team would have to be bad over a prolonged period before being at risk of relegation. However, putting a timer on a rebuild, makes the process even more difficult, not to mention that it likely won’t affect any of the current teams vying for a top pick.

Would a team that misses the playoffs four straight seasons only have to make the play-in tournament to avoid relegation once over a five-year span to reset the timer? I can already see scenarios where rebuilding teams make win-now moves to stave off relegation only to return to their team-building strategy later on.

On the other hand, some teams would rush a rebuild and risk getting too good, too soon, lowering their ultimate ceiling. Take the Detroit Pistons, for example. They have a terrific young core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren, but they’d be much better off in the long term with another top-10 pick instead of making the playoffs this season. Minor details aside, calling up a G League team to the NBA and sending an existing NBA team down to the G League is an empty threat.

Imagine the Austin Spurs replacing the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA. San Antonio would dominate the G league while the Austin Spurs would get knocked around in the NBA. Then there are the issues of contracts, arena size, and, of course, the devaluation of a multi-billion-dollar franchise. No owner would ever sign up for that. Ever. The teams know that, so it’s an empty threat.

The NBA has other, better, options than relegation.

Silver’s comments are likely less of a deterrent and more lip service, at least for now, but there are some things that the NBA can and has already done. Changes to the NBA draft lottery, which previously awarded the two worst teams a 25% and 20% chance at the top pick, have been made. The four worst teams now have a 12.9% to 14.9% chance of winning the first overall pick.

That’s taken some of the incentives out of being the worst team. Still, it does give bad teams some incentive. At the moment, the Spurs, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Houston Rockets appear likely to be those four teams, and the league can closely monitor them, or a team such as Indiana, who may try to get into the bottom four, for signs of tanking.

Exaggerating injuries and outright resting veterans who’d help bad teams win games are prime examples. The league could fine teams who are found to do either, but those teams could simply trade their veterans by the trade deadline to worsen their team and improve their draft lottery odds. The Spurs could trade Jakob Poeltl, Doug McDermott, and Josh Richardson, or the Jazz could deal Mike Conley Jr., Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay, and Jordan Clarkson, and the NBA would be helpless to stop them.

Ultimately, the league should want any of those teams to select Wembanyama or Henderson because it will give them a centerpiece to build around. However, the optics of tanking hurt the NBA. Moreover, Silver’s words, as hollow as they might be, help sell the fact that the league is doing something to try and stop the strategy.