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Predicting the 2022-23 Washington Wizards starting lineup

By Christopher Jeter

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 19: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards reacts to a play against the Brooklyn Nets during the first half at Capital One Arena on January 19, 2022 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 19: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards reacts to a play against the Brooklyn Nets during the first half at Capital One Arena on January 19, 2022 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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Bradley Beal
Washington Wizards, Bradley Beal (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) /

Washington Wizards projected starting shooting guard: Bradley Beal

Hopefully, you weren’t expecting someone else here. The three-time All-Star and two-time 30 PPG scorer missed more than half of 2021-22 with a wrist injury, and the offense sort of held things together without him; Washington scored more 3.9 points per 100 without Beal than it did with him on the court.

Now, this obviously doesn’t mean that the Wizards were better without Beal, as the on/off numbers leave out the mid-season roster changes and the disproportionate sample size. For example, the team allowed fewer points per 100 with Beal on the floor (thanks to the great start the team got off to defensively, and no one will look at that and view Beal’s absence as the reason why the defense fell apart).

At this point, the Wizards know what they’re getting with Beal: he’s a scoring machine who can score as effectively on cuts (87th percentile PPP in 2020-21) and off the ball (85th percentile in spot-up PPP, 96th percentile in off-ball screen PPP) as he is in the pick and roll (96th percentile in PPP in 2020-21) and in isos (89th percentile in PPP).

Defensively, Beal had built up a reputation for being a detriment on that end despite entering the league with glowing defensive reviews, but impact metrics were split on his effectiveness; EPM, LEBRON, Luck-Adjusted RAPM, and RAPTOR all viewed him as a beneficial defensive player, with Box Plus/Minus being the only holdout. BBall Index grading Beal’s on-ball and off-ball efforts pretty well further muddy the consensus.

If Beal has truly become a two-way force, it will make his supermax extension look that much shrewder.

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