NBA All-star #1: Chris Paul
At 37 years old, Chris Paul has held up remarkably well, but he is perhaps the most obvious All-Star regression candidate next season. Last season saw Paul average 14.7 points and a league-leading 10.8 assists per game, but it’s hard to imagine him keeping it up.
Scoring around 15 points per game is certainly doable, though he’ll turn 38 next season and few players have averaged nearly as many points at that age and none have ever averaged as many assists. At this point, I don’t expect Paul’s production to fall off solely due to his age, but it may result in him playing a different role with the Phoenix Suns next season.
The Suns also have all-star Devin Booker, rising star Mikal Bridges, and former first overall pick DeAndre Ayton, who was recently re-signed. As Paul ages, the Suns will probably pivot away from him more and try to empower their young core by getting them more touches.
That’s probably for the best in the long run, considering Paul will be in his 18th season and has plenty of playoff experience, including two deep playoff runs in the last two seasons. As a result, coach Monty Williams may seek to cut his playing time down from 32.3 minutes per game last season to around 28 minutes per game next season.
That should drastically limit the wear and tear on his body, which could both extend his career and the Suns’ championship window. That would come at the cost of diminished production and him possibly not making the all-star team next year, but that could be well worth it.
Overall, Murray, DeRozan, and Paul are all likely to take a step back next season, though for varying reasons. Despite that, each will probably remain relevant, with their teams counting on them to step up when it matters most, in the playoffs.