3 NBA All-Stars on the verge of a major drop-off next season

NBA All-star #2: DeMar DeRozan

In his first season with the Chicago Bulls, forward DeMar DeRozan had a career season at the age of 33. He averaged a sizzling 27.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game and helped the Bulls return to relevancy. That’s all well and good but expecting him to play at the same level or improve upon what was already an unlikely career year may be too much to ask.

Basketball Reference predicts that DeRozan will come back to earth next season by averaging 25.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. Those are more reasonable expectations, but it may not take into account that he’s entering his 14th season, and I suspect his scoring could dip further to around 22 points per game.

To their credit, it’s becoming increasingly common for players to put up big numbers in their 30s. LeBron James and Kevin Durant are prime examples, but James is a superior athlete and Durant is a better shooter. However, DeRozan relies more on his terrific footwork and expert ability to utilize screens to put himself in scoring position rather than relying on explosiveness alone.

Additionally, while much has been made about him being a non-threat from three, he’s still a highly efficient offensive player because he hits a high percentage of his 2-point attempts. That should allow him to age fairly well as an offensive player, but perhaps not as well as he’s projected to next season.

Although he still has the right moves to be a dominant scorer and the court vision to be an above-average playmaker, he does still use speed and athleticism to get to and finish at the rim. If either, or both, were to dip beginning next season, which seems likely given the mileage on his body, his numbers could suffer as a result. Fortunately for Bulls fans, he should still be an All-Star next season. Just don’t expect him to be nearly as good as he was last year.