A Perfect Storm? NBA Play-In Tournament is threatened by a confluence of factors

Which teams would benefit from tanking out of the NBA Play-In Tournament?

It’s official: the NBA Play-In Tournament is here to stay. During a meeting at the 2023 Summer League, the league’s Board of Governors voted to make the eight-team tournament for the final playoff seeds in each conference a permanent fixture of its postseason. Previously agreed upon through a year-to-year structure, the NBA might have set itself up for disaster at the end of the regular season.

As the playoffs grow near, some teams without true title hopes could easily be inclined to drop out of the Play-In with the loaded 2023 draft class looming over the tournament. The Eastern Conference has three teams that might be better off tanking in the Play-In or missing it altogether: the New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards.

By locking former All-Star Bradley Beal into a five-year supermax contract, the Wizards lost nearly all flexibility to make additions via free agency without dumping other important players in the process. Their best path to becoming a playoff threat is by adding talent through the draft. The same can be said of the Hornets, who may recently have lost their second-best player to serious felony accusations, leaving Michael Jordan’s team with a young superstar and a core of good, but not great role players.

The Knicks are a different case study. Any postseason action at Madison Square Garden is sure to bring in revenue, and considering the Knicks’ Governor, James Dolan also owns the area, this team might opt to compete no matter what. Their fans could be talked into it as well. The electrified air that consumes Midtown Manhattan when the Knicks are in the playoffs is enough to propel the fanbase’s unreasonable hope of a miracle. Despite all of these factors, it’s not actually the best course of action. New York would still be better off nabbing an elite lottery talent and building its core rotation to eventually lure a big-name free agent to town.

Next up in the East are the Atlanta Hawks — a team that should, in theory, make it into the Playoff mix. However, one major injury to a star player could derail their seasons; effectively thrusting them into the Play-In mix. This could be the team’s last chance to add a lottery talent after giving up much of its draft capital to acquire All-Star Dejounte Murray from San Antonio.

Things are more complicated in the Western Conference. There appear to be four teams firmly in the tanking territory: the Spurs, Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets.

Like the Knicks in the East, the Sacramento Kings will be a unique case study in the West. Although the team has made acquisitions suggesting they will compete for a Play-In spot, would reaching the playoffs be better than continuing to build a cohesive roster through the draft?” Previously in this category, Utah fully committed to overhauling its roster by trading All-Star Donovan Mitchell months after shipping Rudy Gobert to Minnesota.

Considering all these factors, teams like Portland, Indiana, Dallas, Washington, New York and Atlanta might finish 7th or 8th, but conclude that higher lottery odds are more beneficial than a first-round playoff elimination. Beyond this group are seven more teams already headed toward the lottery: Charlotte, Detroit, Orlando, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Houston and now, Utah.

With all of these teams walking the line between the NBA Play-In Tournament and the draft lottery, the league might be in trouble toward the end of the regular season. This potential “black swan” of a historically potent lottery may have a damaging impact on the Play-In. Barring significant injuries, we have a good idea of title-contending teams that are unlikely to be in this discussion.

Likewise, there are a handful of teams whose most likely positioning will be serious contenders for winning the “Vying for Victor” Wembanyama tankathon. Depending on which of the remaining teams finish between the 7th and 10th seed in their respective conference, a possible nightmare scenario could ensue with the league’s competitive spirit in the balance.