A Perfect Storm? NBA Play-In Tournament is threatened by a confluence of factors

Promise of the ’23 draft class poses a threat to the NBA Play-In Tournament.

When the NBA decided to flatten the Draft Lottery odds in 2017, the goal was to further deter teams from tanking. This shift had limited success in enticing middle-of-the-pack teams to accept mediocrity instead of ‘resting’ players for a bigger slice of the draft pie. This season, we may see an entirely new dynamic at the end of the 2022-23 season due to the sheer volume of lottery talent headlined by a player of the likes we haven’t seen for quite some time.

The 7-foot-3 Wembanyama is the tip of the iceberg. Few players have embodied the unicorn archetype more than Victor, whose long reach is paired with shocking mobility that puts him in a class of his own. Already, he has showcased potentially threatening 3-point shooting along with outstanding ball-handling ability and fantastic footwork. His approach to the game is cerebral, his fundamentals are sound and when put all together, Wembanyama is a true spectacle for basketball fans around the globe.

Already, teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz — two organizations known historically for competing at all costs — traded All-Star talent for an enhanced shot at Wembanyama. The “Vying for Victor” tankathon is likely to include an unprecedented number of teams.

It might seem foolish to dismantle your team for a 14% chance at one player, but 2023 projects to be an extraordinary draft class with elite young talent materializing from various routes to the NBA. Whether it be through college, international play, the G League, or a startup option like Overtime Elite, there are more ways to showcase talent than ever and it’s helping players develop their game from a younger age.

Take Henderson, the consensus runner-up for the top overall pick. At only 17 years old, Henderson joined the G League Ignite and played against professional competition while being groomed for the NBA. The 6-foot-4 guard is as explosive an athlete as you can find with unique slashing ability, crafty ball-handling and a tantalizing vertical that he puts to use in functional ways.

As the equivalent of a High School senior, Henderson competed in the G League Showcase. He averaged more points than Dyson Daniels, more assists than Jaden Hardy and more steals than MarJon Beauchamp. Later on during the G League Ignite tour, his net rating was greater than any of his teammates who have since been drafted to the NBA. For his impressive passing instinct, destructive first step and functional athleticism, Henderson would compete for the top pick in any draft class.

Following Wembanyama and Henderson is a legion of enthralling up-and-comers who any team would be lucky to add. Draft expert Adam Spinella is a rising star in the scouting world. When asked about the quality of this class, he offered the following comment:

"“There are a few elite-level talents at the top, but the depth and strength of the lottery prospects is what stands out most. Having multiple lottery picks in 2023 can change the direction of a franchise in ways that would not happen in other years. There’s enough legitimate talent to find in the top-five that a race to the bottom isn’t a whiff if you don’t end up with the first or second pick.”"

Few players fit the example better than the Thompson Twins, Ausar and Amen. This pair of 6-foot-7 wings has unique athletic ability which they use to score at the rim in droves, rack up defensive stats and alter their opponents’ shots. Amen appears to be a natural passer while Ausar displayed more scoring instinct, but their games are both worthy of a lottery pick.

Rising up draft boards is Cam Whitmore, a dynamic athlete with a deep scoring arsenal and three-level scoring potential. With extreme verticality, he leverages his opponent’s fear of dunks and silky layups to pour in jumpers from the perimeter. Many of his skills are still raw, but on any given night, Whitmore can dazzle the crowd by taking advantage of the coverage thrown at him. As he establishes himself at one of the best current basketball programs in Villanova, the 6-foot-7 small forward may improve his stock early in 2023.

The same could be said of Duke’s latest recruits, Dereck Lively and Dariq Whitehead, who are ranked first and second on ESPN’s top 100 collegiate prospects respectively. Playing for the college basketball powerhouse will offer a strong training ground for two highly-talented prospects hoping to make the league with a strong freshman campaign.

Each of the following prospects has a serious case to be selected in the draft lottery, and in a less talented class, would be projected higher than their current standing:

• Nick Smith, Guard, Arkansas
• Keyonte George, Wing, Baylor
• Cason Wallace, Guard, Kentucky
• Kel’el Ware, Center, Oregon
• Dillon Mitchell, Forward, Texas

A deep lottery with a top prospect as coveted as Wembanyama will make more teams willing to scrap their plans than in years past. The team with the worst record has not won the NBA Draft Lottery since the new odds took effect in 2019. In the first year with flattened odds, the New Orleans Pelicans jumped from seventh to first and selected Zion Williamson.

Any team that misses out on the Play-In Tournament has a minimum of a 2.4% chance of jumping into the Top Four of a stacked class. Even without taking that leap, there is enough talent that teams can feel strongly about picking any player in the lottery range. So what are the odds of advancing through the Play-In, taking down the No. 1 seed and making a real splash in the playoffs? Probably not as high as the lottery odds you’d get by dropping out.